Kalshi traders price Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico at 46% in the Texas Senate race, narrowing the Republican advantage to roughly 8 points as new polls show the race tightening.
The market for the Texas Republican Senate nominee race is similarly close. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads at 59% over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn at 39%.
Republican primary voters head to the polls in Texas on May 29 to determine who Talarico will face in the general election. Traders are also pricing several general-election scenarios based on who wins the GOP runoff. A Paxton victory is priced at 35%, Talarico beating Paxton at 32%, and Cornyn defeating Talarico at 24%.
Current polling
Recent polls may explain the tightening market.
The Texas Tribune reported that two new polls show Talarico leading over Paxton and Cornyn in the Senate race.
The Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin found Talarico leading over Cornyn at 40% to 33%, and leading over Paxton at 42% to 34%.
The Texas Public Opinion Research conducted its polling from April 17-20 and found that Talarico leads among likely voters over Cornyn at 44% to 41%, and over Paxton at 46% to 41%.
Those numbers could raise concerns for Texas Republicans. A Democrat has not won a statewide race in Texas since 1994.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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