President Donald Trump’s last-minute endorsement of former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo on the eve of New York City’s mayoral election has introduced an unexpected element into the race. But so far, traders appear to view it as a limited factor.
According to Kalshi’s “New York City Mayor Election” market, Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani remains the clear favorite ahead of Tuesday’s vote, holding an 89% chance of victory as of Monday evening.
Following the announcement, Cuomo’s odds rose slightly to 12%, while Republican Curtis Sliwa’s remained below 1%, a modest response thus far.
NBC News reports that the president urged voters not to support Sliwa, arguing that a Republican vote would aid Mamdani. “Whether you personally like Andrew Cuomo or not, you really have no choice,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. The statement followed his “60 Minutes” interview, in which he suggested he would prefer Cuomo to Mamdani, whom he described as a “communist.”
Cuomo, who has repeatedly said he would not accept Trump’s backing, did not respond publicly to the endorsement. During a recent interview with “Meet the Press,” he said, “I have not had a conversation nor would I accept an endorsement from President Trump.”
Market reaction remains restrained
While the endorsement drew considerable political attention, the market response has been limited. A separate Kalshi market tracking the margin of Mamdani’s victory shows traders expecting a solid but somewhat narrower result. Contracts implying a 12–18 point Mamdani lead remain the most favored, while those forecasting a Cuomo victory have edged up to 11%, a four-point increase from the previous day.
The shift mirrors polling trends reported by Al Jazeera, which cited a RealClearPolitics average showing Mamdani with 45.8%, Cuomo at 31.1%, and Sliwa at 17.3%. That 14.7-point margin is broadly consistent with Kalshi’s implied forecast, suggesting that traders see little immediate change in the race’s trajectory.
Quick results?
A third Kalshi market on when the Associated Press will call the election indicates that most expect a swift result. Traders assign an 81% probability that the race will be called before 10 p.m. Eastern Time, pointing to expectations of a decisive outcome rather than a prolonged count.
With polling stations set to open at 6 a.m. Tuesday, sentiment could still shift if turnout patterns or late-breaking news suggest a closer contest. For now, however, Kalshi’s markets indicate that Mamdani retains a commanding advantage, and that Trump’s endorsement, while noteworthy, has not materially altered expectations ahead of Election Day.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
The data suggest that Trump’s intervention has stirred political interest but not market conviction. Traders appear to view Mamdani’s lead as durable, though with room for minor movement as Election Day unfolds.
Sources: NBC News, Nov. 3, 2025; Al Jazeera, Nov. 3, 2025.
Image Source: Gage Skidmore
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions.