Tonight, President Donald Trump will deliver the first official State of the Union (SOTU) address of his second term. As always, it is likely to be one of the most consequential political moments of the year.
Just kidding. If history is our guide, the speech will likely be forgotten within a few days, or maybe even a few hours, if there’s breaking news about Punch the Monkey.
Don’t believe me?
If you Google the “most memorable SOTU moments,” it’s mainly just morons heckling and world-class stock traders ripping up paper.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author uses a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi.
The State of the Union
On the one hand, the State of the Union is a time-honored tradition, like Fourth of July fireworks or circumcision.
On the other hand, it’s so boring and pointless that every President from 1801 to 1912 decided to skip it altogether and just sent a letter to Congress instead. So maybe that’s the route we should take.
After all, is a speech really necessary? We live in the digital age, where anyone interested in the current state of our union can just check in with the President directly on his own social media platform (after the ads, of course):
Jesus.
But despite the overall pointlessness of tonight’s speech, Kalshi offers a wide range of State of the Union-related markets to trade on. Not only are they a convenient way to hedge your pharmaceutical stocks against the risk of the President launching into a tirade on vaccines and autism, but they have the added benefit of making this crap tolerable to watch.
With that in mind, here’s a closer look at Kalshi’s 2026 State of the Union markets.
What will Trump say?
As mentioned above, you can trade specifically on what Trump will say during the course of his speech. And that presents a great hedging opportunity for people who own windmill factories, DEI consulting firms, or daycares in Minnesota.
It’s also great for anyone who wants to hedge against the possibility of the President mentioning “nationalized” elections or the “insurrection act,” and perhaps making enough to buy a passport to Antigua & Barbuda in the process.
Also, if you think that last paragraph reeks of “Trump Derangement Syndrome” (TDS), you can trade on the President saying that exact phrase, too! It’s at 22%.
We truly cover the whole spectrum, political… or otherwise.
Along with “what” the President will talk about, we also have a market on “who” he will bring up during his speech.
Trump has never been one to let sleeping dogs lie, and apparently, the same applies to Sleepy Joes. Traders think there’s a 93% chance he’ll bring up President Biden.
Near the opposite end of the market is Ghislaine Maxwell. Traders think there’s only a 3% chance the President will be wishing her well this evening, which is still surprisingly high.
There’s also a one-in-four chance that the most powerful man in the world will give a shout-out to Nicki Minaj, the woman who gave the world Anaconda. But don’t worry. Most political scientists agree that this is a clear sign we are living in a healthy democracy.
Since we’ve covered the “who” and “what,” it only makes sense to cover the “where.”
Our market on “What places” Trump will mention in his speech shows us which countries and cities traders are expecting Trump to focus on tonight.
Currently, traders think Iran (94%), Russia (92%), and Canada (83%) are likely to get a shout-out from Trump, for better or worse.
Meanwhile, Iceland (8%), Argentina (16%), and Portland (11%) are likely to avoid Presidential scrutiny.
And the location least likely to get a mention is a private island called “Little St. James,” which is only trading at 3%, for some reason.
We’ve pretty well covered what Trump will say. Now let’s take a look at who will be around to hear it.
As you’d expect, traders are bullish on all the usual suspects attending tonight’s speech, including cabinet members as well as members of Congress. Pete Hegseth, John Fetterman, Nancy Pelosi, and Ilhan Omar are all trading above 90%.
However, this year, in light of Trump’s criticism of the Supreme Court over their recent tariff decision, there is less certainty on which Justices will attend. In fact, there’s a better chance that noted fabulist and convicted (though recently pardoned) fraudster George Santos (62%) will be at the speech than Justices Ketanji Brown Jackson (58%) and Neil Gorsuch (59%).
And once again, there’s also around a one-in-four chance that the woman who wrote the following post will be in attendance.
And if she makes it, I hope she’s seated next to Mitch McConnell (68%).
As a side note, we also have a market on whether all of Trump’s known children will attend. Current odds are 58%.
Normally, by the end of any State of the Union, you’re praying for the speech to end. But depending on how you trade in our SOTU length market, you might actually be praying for it to go long.
Traders currently forecast the speech will last 96.4 minutes.
OK, I’ve been trashing the State of the Union. But to be fair, it’s all relative, and things could always be worse.
Case in point, the Democratic Response to the State of the Union will air after the conclusion of Trump’s speech. And it will likely be terrible.
In 2024, Sen. Katie Britt’s Republican response was so bad, she made Joe Biden seem like he wasn’t a day over 75. And tonight, I’m expecting the same energy from Democratic Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger.
As if one response wasn’t bad enough, the Democrats have decided to double down with a second “State of the Swamp” address from Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey.
I literally get paid to watch this stuff. And I’m still going to skip it.
But if you’re some sort of sadist who is going to sit through these speeches too, we’ve got markets for both Spanberger and Frey.
Good luck, sicko.
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who is using a pseudonym and cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.