President Trump’s trade tariffs have been an extremely controversial topic. As something that affects the day-to-day lives of seemingly every American citizen and a vast swath of businesses, the conversation consistently elicits strong debate. And if Kalshi’s markets are correct, the fate of these tariffs is very much in doubt.
The Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision on a tariff-related case (V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump) within the first half of January 2026. The current odds of SCOTUS ruling in favor of the Trump administration sit at only 30%.
This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.
A looming vote
Plaintiff V.O.S. Selections — backed by entities in over a dozen U.S. states, including NY, IL, CO, MN, AZ, NV, and more — has been viewed as the likely victor here as far back as early September. However, Trump saw movement on Friday, trading at 21¢ before jumping up to 31¢ in the afternoon.
For reference, Trump’s odds of victory hit a low of 19.7% on November 7, following a federal judge’s order for the Trump administration to fully fund SNAP benefits, which saw its finances in jeopardy during last year’s record government shutdown.
Trump’s more recent legal loss in “Illinois v. Trump” signals to some that the court is prepared to reject the president with regard to his authority to implement sweeping tariffs on all foreign countries, including many of the United States’ closest allies.
How close is the case?
Kalshi also offers markets on exactly how many Supreme Court justices will rule in support of the president’s tariffs. Presently, “3,” which is priced at 35¢, is viewed as the favorite.
Those bullish on tariffs should be eager to see that the second-most likely selection in this market is “5,” with an 18% likelihood. The market mean peaked on December 29, at which time Kalshi’s traders suggested an average of 3.9 justices voting to uphold President Trump’s tariffs. Keep in mind that a majority decision — or five of nine justices — is required to win the ruling.
At this time, the nine presiding justices are Chief of Justice John G. Roberts (appointed by Bush), Clarence Thomas (appt. H.W. Bush), Samuel A. Alito Jr. (appt. Bush), Sonia Sotomayor (appt. Obama), Elena Kagan (appt. Obama), Neil Gorsuch (appt. Trump), Brett Kavanaugh (appt. Trump), Amy Coney Barrett (appt. Trump) and Ketanji Brown Jackson (appt. Biden).
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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