US Open: Zverev's odds surge after Shelton upsets Alcaraz

Title favorite and defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is out of the US Open, falling in a thrilling five-set battle with American Ben Shelton early on Wednesday morning. 

His exit leaves German Alexander Zverev, the tournament’s top seed, as the clear favorite to hoist the trophy on Sunday. 

Zverev’s title chances jumped from below 27% on Tuesday evening to now more than 44% ahead of his Wednesday quarterfinal with Botic van de Zandschulp. Shelton, who narrowly edged out Alcaraz, is priced at 37% to win the tournament. 

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Alexander Zverev entered the season having never won a Grand Slam tournament. After claiming his maiden victory at Roland Garros earlier this year, he’s poised to add a second to his collection. 

Kalshi traders make him a 44% favorite to take home the trophy and give him 74% odds to qualify for the finals for the second time at the event. In 2020, Zverev held a two set lead over Dominic Thiem in the finals in New York, but ultimately fell in a tiebreak. 

After struggling through his first two matches, he’s hit his stride, quickly earning straight set victories in the third and fourth round. Additionally the German has benefitted from a thin half of the draw. 

As the top seed, Zverev’s half avoided the likes of Shelton, Novak Djokovic, Alcaraz, Arthur Fils, and many other contending names. Those who were present, like Taylor Fritz and Rafael Jodar, fell early in the tournament, opening the path for Zverev to move comfortably through to the final stages. 

Kalshi traders make Ben Shelton the most likely to stop him, pricing the American left-hander at 37%.

Shelton found his best to upset Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set battle that didn’t conclude until around 3:30 am ET on Wednesday. Now he’ll square off with fellow American Frances Tiafoe in a rematch of their 2023 US Open quarterfinal tilt. Shelton took that meeting and holds a 3-1 head-to-head record over Tiafoe. As a result, traders give Tiafoe just 10% odds of walking away from New York with the trophy. 

Last but not least, Karen Khachanov and Alexander Blockx, who will square off on Wednesday in the first men’s quarterfinal of the day, are priced at 5% and 3%, respectively, to win the title. 

Before getting to the final, Zverev will need to find his way through the Netherland’s Botic van de Zandschulp. Despite long histories on tour, the pair have never squared off against each other, with Wednesday marking their first ever meeting. 

Nevertheless, Kalshi traders price Zverev as a sizable favorite to get through the encounter with odds of 88% at the time of writing. The pair have both spent a lot of time on court during the event, but van de Zandschulp is coming off a more recent, grueling victory. The Dutchman needed to save a match point in his fourth round matchup with Arthur Gea, ultimately fighting back from a two set deficit to win in a contest that took more than five hours. 

The winner of that match will get the opportunity to play the victor of the matchup featuring Karen Khachanov and Alexander Blockx, the youngest remaining player in the field. The surprise quarterfinalists will take the court no earlier than 2:00pm ET on Wednesday, with Khachanov favored slightly according to Kalshi traders, priced at 60%. 

Despite having poor form coming into the event, the former top-10 ranked Russian has found his best level since returning to New York. He breezed through his first two rounds and notched consecutive upsets when knocking out Felix Auger-Aliassame and Learner Tien in his next two matches. Now, he’s favored to make the semifinals. 

Blockx hasn’t been pushed to a fifth set yet in New York, but the young Belgian is still feeling the physical effects of tennis. In his most recent post-match press conference, the 21-year old noted that almost didn’t finish his encounter with Francisco Cerundolo. 

“I was really close to retiring, to be honest,” Blockx told reporters. Kalshi traders give him a 40% chance to find his way through Khachanov and make his first ever US Open semifinal. 

While the men’s draw has been shaken up, some of the world’s top-ranked women are still alive and fighting for a chance to win in New York. On Wednesday, Coco Gauff and Elena Rybakina are favored to win their respective quarterfinal matchups, which would pit the pair against each other for a spot in the finals. 

Rybakina, priced at 73% to defeat Qinwen Zheng, will become world No. 1 with a victory no matter the result of the tournament. 

Gauff on the other hand is priced at 66% to beat Roland Garros champion, Mirra Andreeva. 

Regardless of what happens on Wednesday, Aryna Sabalenka lurks as the tournament title favorite with odds of 39%. 

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Image Source: Jeff Dean, USTA

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