Olympic hockey odds: U.S. leads Sweden entering quarterfinal

The 2026 Winter Olympics in Milano-Cortina are in full swing, and men’s ice hockey has reached its quarterfinal round. 

Eight nations still have a shot at gold in this event as the action resumes Wednesday. The United States will play in the last quarterfinal game, taking on Sweden at 3:10 p.m. ET from Milano Santagiulia IHO Arena.

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_{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

The Americans enter Wednesday’s game priced at 73¢ to defeat Sweden.

However, both sides are well saturated with NHL talent, including marquee names such as Jack Eichel, the Tkachuk brothers, Gustav Forsling, and Filip Gustavsson. Thus far, the Group C–winning U.S. is 3-0. Conversely, Sweden is 3-1 in Milan.

The game will also feature a head-to-head matchup between American forward Brady Tkachuk and Swedish defenseman Gustav Forsling. The two are teammates on the Florida Panthers, which will add another level to the match.

Overall, this will be a battle between USA’s dynamic offense and Sweden’s bruising defense. Pacing USA in points right now is Auston Matthews. In three games, Matthews has registered three goals and two assists. Currently, Kalshi traders price the Toronto Maple Leafs forward at a 14% probability to win Olympic men’s hockey Most Valuable Player.

Sweden goalie Filip Gustavsson has been one of the top-performing individuals in Milan. Through four games, Gustavsson has displayed a save rate well north of .900.

Regardless, the Minnesota Wild goalkeeper will face his toughest challenge yet in the Americans.

Sweden has outscored its Olympic opponents 16-10 ahead of the quarterfinal, suffering a lone loss to Finland. In that same vein, USA has blitzed its competition, utilizing a 16-5 scoring advantage en route to an unblemished record. Overall, Sweden is 9-5 in 14 head-to-head matchups against the USA.

The U.S. presently has the second-shortest odds on Kalshi to win gold in men’s hockey, and is priced at 32¢.

Meanwhile, Canada is the favorite with a 56% likelihood to win it all. The Canadians, tagged with an 86% chance to at least advance to the semis, will play Czechia Wednesday at 10:40 a.m. ET.

Sweden is the fourth most likely team to win the gold, but is still priced at 4%. Meanwhile, Finland, the reigning Olympic champions from Beijing, has a seven-percent chance to repeat as title winner. Finland plays Switzerland in the QF round immediately prior to USA-Sweden.

For reference, Canada has not won gold in men’s hockey since 2014 (Sochi). Sweden has not reached the mountaintop since 2006 (Turin). Lastly, the gold medal has evaded team USA since the U.S. hosted the Games in 1980 (Lake Placid).

Kalshi markets now forecast:

To win the Men’s Olympic Ice Hockey Gold Medal:

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