Warner Bros. takeover odds jump as Paramount sweetens bid

Traders appear to believe that Paramount Skydance’s revised bid for Warner Bros. has materially strengthened its position.

The company’s odds of acquiring the Warner Bros. Discovery media empire jumped 13 points to 67% before settling at 61%. Meanwhile, Netflix’s odds dropped by 8 points to 30%.

Paramount’s new bid hasn’t accelerated the expected timeline for a deal. The revised bid suggests negotiations could extend as Netflix and Paramount escalate competing offers for Warner Bros. Discovery.

Traders continue to project a December close if Paramount prevails. Odds of a December acquisition rose three points to 62% following the revised bid.

CNBC reports that Paramount raised its offer from $30 to $31 per share, a move that could give the company the edge it needs to counter Netflix’s bid. The all-cash proposal includes a $7 billion breakup fee if the merger doesn’t meet regulatory standards.

Warner Bros. Discovery said in a statement that it would review the offer during its seven-day “limited waiver period.” If Warner Bros. Discovery decides Paramount’s offer is better, Netflix has four days to make its own counteroffer above its previously agreed-upon bid of $27.75 per share in December.

Unlike Netflix’s targeted bid for the studio and streaming assets, Paramount Skydance’s proposal would encompass the entirety of Warner Bros. Discovery, a broader structure that may appeal to shareholders seeking a clean exit.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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