Texas Senate odds: Paxton enters general election as 55% favorite over Talarico

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton won the Republican primary for Texas Senator on Tuesday after picking up a key endorsement from President Trump earlier this month. Now, as he moves on to face Democrat James Talarico in November’s general election, traders are pricing him as a clear favorite.

The market for the Texas Senate election shows Paxton with a 55% chance of winning, compared to Talarico at 45%.

Politico’s Liz Crampton and Samuel Benson reported that some Republicans are concerned that Paxton’s nomination could “force them to spend massively to hold onto the seat, sucking away resources from other top battlegrounds.”

In the aftermath of Paxton’s victory, Kalshi’s Senate control market narrowed slightly. The Republican Party’s chances of retaining the chamber are now at 52%, compared to 48%.

Ahead of Tuesday’s election, The El Paso Times reported that a poll from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Centers showed that 45% of voters would back Cornyn if he became the candidate and 44% would back Talarico. The same poll also showed 45% of voters would back Paxton and 45% would back Talarico.

Kalshi markets now predict

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