Texas voters are headed to the polls today to pick their candidates in the primary for general election in November. As the race to replace Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton nears its end, Kalshi traders think there’s a clear frontrunner.
With just a few hours left until the polls close, Republican primary candidate and Texas Sen. Mayes Middleton’s chances of winning are priced at 89% over his opponent Texas Rep. Chip Roy, who is priced at 13%.
Things look pretty similar on the Democratic primary market. Texas Sen. Nathan Johnson is priced as a 99% favorite over attorney and former Galveston Mayor Joe Jaworski, who is priced at 1%.
Even though the race is still in the primary phase, traders also have a clear favorite in mind for which party will ultimately win Paxton's seat. The market shows the Republicans with a 91% chance, well ahead of the Democrats, who are priced at 15%.
The Republican primary race
The race for the Republican side of the Texas Attorney General election has only intensified as voters head to the voting booth.
The New York Times reported that Roy has out-raised Middleton with "more than $8 million, providing a late boost to his campaign." The majority of those funds came from West Texas businessman Alex Fairley who gave Roy $4.75 million in the final stretch of his campaign.
Roy used this influx of funding to increase his attack ads and mailers against Middleton. The Dallas Morning News reported that Roy's ads are calling Middleton a "trust fund kid" who inherited his family's oil business to fund his campaign. Middleton responded with ads claiming Paxton is planning to vote for him in the primary race, even though Paxton's office has not responded to those claims.
The Democratic primary race
Things are a little quieter on the blue side of the Texas Attorney General primary race.
Both Republican candidates have been able to outspend their Democratic opponents. The Texas Tribune reported that Johnson raised more than $901,000 and Jaworski has raised just over $283,000 for their respective campaigns.
This is the first time in 10 years that Texas voters are choosing a new Attorney General since Paxton left the position to run for Senate, but it's also been 25 years since the office was held by a Democrat.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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