The week ahead: Red cards, relocations, and an AI arms race

We hope that you were able to enjoy the Fourth of July weekend with friends, family, and fireworks despite the sweltering heat that broke daily temperature records in more than 21 states.

There were a ton of big events over the weekend, like the continuation of the FIFA World Cup, Joey Chestnut eating 66 hot dogs to win Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for the 18th time, and Taylor Swift's wedding at Madison Square Garden.

While those events will be hard to top, this week has a lot in store too. The knockout stage of the World Cup is continuing and will be more ruthless than ever: by this time next week, there will only be four teams remaining in the semifinals. Additionally, LeBron James is moving teams once again and AI giant IPOs are starting to heat up. While this is a lot to digest, we’ve got it all covered, so let’s get into the newsletter.

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On Wednesday of last week, Team USA took down Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0. While Team USA was the favorite to win the match, after scoring to put the United States ahead 1-0, Folarin Balogun received a controversial red card after accidentally stepping on the ankle of Tarik Muharemovic.

While initially many thought that the United States would face Belgium later today without him, a ruling from FIFA suspended the red card issued to him, meaning that he will be able to participate in the game, with USA priced at 54% to advance and Belgium at 47%.

Though the focus is mostly on the coming week, it’s worth acknowledging the thrilling performance Cabo Verde put on last week. It was no surprise that, with star player Lionel Messi, traders had Argentina as a heavy favorite heading into the match. What was a surprise, however, was how the Cabo Verde players, notably their goalkeeper Vozinha, were able to force overtime and respond to every goal except the one scored in the 111th minute, staying in the match until the final whistle. Most everyone expected an absolute bloodbath and while Cabo Verde wasn’t able to get a ticket to the Round of 16, they did gain the respect of everyone around the world.

In the other matches, France beat Paraguay 1-0 and Morocco beat Canada 3-0, meaning the two teams will face off this Thursday with the winner being the first to clinch a spot in the semifinals. In addition, Spain and Portugal will also meet later today with the winner heading to the quarterfinals either against the United States or Belgium.

Last week, Rich Paul, LeBron’s agent, announced that the superstar would be moving teams once again after spending eight seasons with Los Angeles, some of which he played with his son, Bronny. Immediately, rumors started circulating about where LeBron would end up and traders seem to have narrowed it down to joining Golden State for a power run with Steph Curry and Draymond Green or heading back to Cleveland for the second time.

Of the rumors circulating, some hypothesize that Cleveland, who picked James as the first round pick of the 2003 draft, is keeping roster spots available to trade for Bronny James to keep the father-son duo together.

Regardless of whether the family moves to the same team, if James rejoins the Cavs, he would be alongside Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, and Evan Mobley, who advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals last season for the first time since 2018 before being swept by New York.

Those four players together on a team would be a force to reckon with, but so would placing LeBron on any of the 4 other teams his agent listed as suitors outside of Golden State and Cleveland: Miami, Philadelphia, Denver, and Minnesota. LeBron isn’t expected to make a decision anytime soon, but just like all things involving high-grade pro athletes, things can change quickly. 

Switching gears from sports to perhaps the farthest thing from them, IPOs for AI behemoths Anthropic and OpenAI have been speculated on for months, though the real change in speculations occurred on June 1st when Anthropic “confidentially” filed its IPO. The filing was quickly followed up by an immediate announcement from the company to get ahead of potential leaks that were almost guaranteed to happen. One week later, OpenAI followed suit, filing for its own IPO and disclosing the confidential information in a similar way.

While no major announcements have really come directly from either company regarding the financings, discussion over what role the federal government plays in regulating (and perhaps even taking a stake in) the companies has grown significantly. Just a few days ago, OpenAI proposed handing the Trump administration a 5% stake in the company after Trump, Sam Altman, and Bernie Sanders all agreed on viewing AI as a national resource.

Now if you’re anything like me, hearing those three names and the word “agree” in the same sentence sounds a bit odd, but amidst growing concerns about data center construction, the implications AI has on cybersecurity, and its impact on American jobs, it makes sense that the individuals and groups they represent are coming together even if they don’t agree on all the details of what government ownership would look like just yet.

The government has already taken a step toward regulating the giants when they forced Anthropic to pull Fable 5, citing concerns about national security. Similar to the IPOs, shortly after Anthropic had a model blocked from being released, OpenAI received an executive order that forced a staggered rollout of the GPT-5.6 family.

While Fable 5 was eventually reopened to the public with strict guardrails and OpenAI's newest models remain accessible only to a handful of enterprise partners responsible for safety testing, it is becoming increasingly clear that neither the AI giants nor the federal government is going anywhere. The relationship between them will only become more complex, creating plenty of new markets to trade on Kalshi.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
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