The Fourth of July means the return of the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest, and Kalshi traders overwhelmingly expect Joey Chestnut to claim another title.
The market for who will win the men’s hot dog eating contest has Joey “Jaws” Chestnut in the lead at a price of 95%, followed by Patrick Bertoletti at 4%, and James Webb at 2%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with Joey Chestnut or Nathan’s Hot Dogs.
Traders also expect Chestnut to eat 68.7 hot dogs during the 10-minute contest, which is likely to take place amid sweltering temperatures.
Chestnut favored to win
Once again, traders are confident Chestnut will take home the trophy at this year’s annual hot dog eating contest.
Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes reported that in 2025, Chestnut returned to the contest following a one-year ban from Major League Eating for signing an endorsement deal with Impossible Foods that the league deemed to be a conflict of interest. He downed 70.5 hot dogs and buns to win his 17th title, and he’s expected to take home his 18th on Saturday.
Bertoletti finished in second place with a distant 46.5 hot dogs, so the chances seem pretty good that Chestnut will be able to out-digest his competition.
Another controversy
Chestnut has moved well past his previous ban, but he won’t be attending this year’s contest completely free of controversy.
US Weekly reported in May 2026 that Chestnut pled guilty to a count of misdemeanor battery during an altercation in a bar.
Chestnut slapped a man in a bar during a night out in Indiana on March 21, 2026. A fan approached Chestnut in the bar after recognizing him. The two exchanged a handshake before Chestnut slapped him on the left side of his face. Chestnut later told police that he was “pretty drunk and didn’t remember” the incident.
In April 2026, Chestnut pled guilty to the misdemeanor charge and was sentenced to 180 days of probation. He’ll still be on probation when he competes in the contest this Saturday.
Will Chestnut beat his record?
While traders overwhelmingly expect Chestnut to win, they're much less confident he'll challenge his own Guinness World Record.
The market for whether or not the record will be broken only shows a 10% chance that Chestnut or any other competitor will surpass the hot dog eating contest record on Saturday.
Chestnut set the world record for the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2021 when he successfully ate 76 hot dogs. The event didn’t actually take place at Nathan’s due to COVID restrictions, but it’s still considered a sanctioned event as part of the annual contest.
The Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest begins at 10:45 am Eastern for the women’s competition and 12:30 pm Eastern for the men’s competition. You can watch the contest on ABC and ESPN2. The competition will re-air at 4 pm Eastern on ESPN2.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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