Kalshi traders can't seem to decide where LeBron James will play next season, with Golden State and Cleveland repeatedly swapping positions as the favorite over the past two days.
Traders have narrowed down the most likely possibilities for James' next pro-basketball team to Golden State and Cleveland, but their place on the chart is fluctuating by the minute. Golden State now leads the market at 45%, followed by Cleveland at 28% and Miami at 19%, after the top two teams traded the lead several times.
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How did we get here?
The prices for the teams on the market have been changing places since it was first announced that James could become a free agent and possibly leave Los Angeles.
Earlier this week, news surfaced that talks between James and Los Angeles had stalled and other teams were starting to show interest in making a trade for him. The market showed Cleveland in the lead but a small margin in the mid-20s, followed by Miami and then Golden State.
Then on Tuesday, James' agent confirmed that he would be leaving Los Angeles and Golden State started to take the lead on the market before settling on a price around 60%. Cleveland sat in a distant second at roughly 23% with Miami and San Antonio picking up the slack.
What’s the latest news?
Cleveland seems to be doing everything it can to make space in its salaries to bring James back to his home state for one more season.
Sports Illustrated's John Hobbs reported that Cleveland has been trading away some of its top players to attract James back to Cleveland. The team gave Dean Wade to Philadelphia and Keon Ellis to Brooklyn to make room in its budget for James. Cleveland is also exploring options to send away Max Strus and Dennis Schroder who make a combined salary of $30.8 million.
The Athletic's Joe Vardon makes the case that Cleveland is James' most realistic landing spot, and not primarily for financial reasons. James would have to accept a pay cut to join the team, but Vardon argues Cleveland's run to the Eastern Conference Finals last season, even in a sweep, shows the team is closer to contention than its exit suggests, and that adding James could push them over the top in the playoffs.
Golden State
Cleveland may be doing everything it can to bring James back to its team, but Golden State is giving them some tough competition.
CBS Sports' Brad Botkin reports that Golden State is sitting $32.5 million underneath the salary cap that's dedicated to just 10 players and they still need four more. James could take half of the difference and it appears that Moses Moody will probably miss the majority of next season due to a torn left patellar tendon that ended the remainder of his last season. So Golden State has some maneuvering room to make space for James on its roster if they make the right deal with another team.
With both teams continuing to reshape their rosters, traders appear poised to keep reacting quickly to every new report, making James' next-team market one of Kalshi's most volatile this offseason.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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