USA and Belgium meet today in Seattle with a quarterfinal place on the line. The co-hosts are seeking their first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002, hoping to avenge the 2014 knockout heartbreak when Belgium beat them in extra time.
Traders on Kalshi give USA a 54% chance to advance, a number that reflects Folarin Balogun's eligibility being fully settled despite a challenge from Belgium.
Meanwhile, Belgium sits at 47%, leaning on a squad that has won five straight meetings between the two sides. The winner faces the winner of Portugal vs. Spain in the quarterfinals.
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What's at stake
USA topped Group D and beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 in the Round of 32, despite playing more than half the match a man down after Balogun was sent off in the 64th minute. FIFA suspended the red card on Sunday, an extraordinary step with no real precedent in the modern game — the last time a World Cup red card went unenforced was 1962 — after President Trump personally asked FIFA president Gianni Infantino to review the decision.
Belgium's federation challenged the reversal, but, ESPN reported, FIFA's Appeal Committee ruled the challenge inadmissible on Monday, clearing Balogun, the tournament's leading scorer for the co-hosts with three goals, to start against Belgium. Coach Mauricio Pochettino's side is chasing its first World Cup quarterfinal since 2002.
Belgium, meanwhile, survived a stunning Round of 32 comeback of its own, erasing a 2-0 deficit in the final seven minutes to beat Senegal 3-2 in extra time on a Youri Tielemans brace and a late Romelu Lukaku strike. Coach Rudi Garcia has downplayed the Balogun news, telling FIFA that "the fact that Balogun will be playing tomorrow doesn't change anything for us."
History still favors the Red Devils, who have won five straight meetings with the USA, including a 5-2 friendly win in March, and beat the Americans 2-1 in extra time in the 2014 Round of 16.
Reaching the semifinals
The gap narrows in Kalshi's secondary markets. USA is priced at 16% to reach the semifinals, just ahead of Belgium's 14%, reflecting how tightly matched the two sides are seen beyond tonight's result.
The bigger picture
At the tournament-winner market, USA sits at 3.8%, while Belgium is priced at 1.4%. Both figures remain modest, reflecting a field still dominated by clearer favorites, but a run to the quarterfinals would be a genuine breakthrough for either side.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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