Bill Belichick’s second season at the University of North Carolina has started perfectly on the field.
The Tar Heels have won each of their first two games and are priced at 40% in their upcoming game against Clemson on Saturday.
But off the field, drama continues to surround the university and its football program.
On Thursday, Steve Belichick, the program’s defensive coordinator and the son of its head coach, resigned from his position, effective on October 27 when his medical leave will conclude, according to a report from The Athletic.
The resignation follows the conclusion of an internal investigation into the program’s “culture and climate,” which found “certain actions demonstrated a disregard for Carolina’s values and standards of conduct,” the report says.
Following his son’s resignation, Kalshi traders give Bill Belichick, who won six Super Bowls as the head coach of the New England Patriots, a 69% chance of leaving North Carolina before the end of the year.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with eh NCAA.
Steve Belichick resigns, is Bill next to go?
Steve Belichick’s resignation comes just two weeks after the resignation of UNC football General Manager Michael Lombardi, a longtime connection of Bill Belichick’s who joined him at the University of North Carolina after Belichick signed a five-year contract to become the school’s head football coach.
Lombardi was placed on administrative leave in July as the internal and independent investigation ramped up, ultimately revealing “isolated” but “not systemic failure,” according to Thursday’s reports.
With his son Steve out of the picture, defensive football responsibilities have reportedly shifted to Belichick’s other son Brian, who is also on the staff.
Though there was no immediate odds repricing on Thursday, with two of his closest connections out at UNC, traders have repriced odds for the program’s head coach to also be out at the program over the last few weeks.
Odds of Belichick being out as the UNC head coach, whether it be via firing, resignation, or some other departure, before the end of the year are at 69% on Thursday, up from 40% when the month began. An even earlier exit, like Belichick leaving his post by December 1, 2026 sits at 58%.
Meanwhile, odds of the former NFL coach maintaining his role at UNC into 2028 are even more slim. Traders currently price odds of Belichick leaving the head coaching position at UNC before January 1, 2028 at 90%.
However, despite those odds, the University’s investigation into the football program is reportedly resolved. Furthermore, operations around the program in the absence of Steve Belichick and Michael Lombardi are reportedly smoother, sources told The Athletic.
Belichick among most likely college head coaching departures
Only a pair of head coaches, Florida State’s Mike Norvell and Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell, are priced as more likely than Belichick to exit their positions before February 2027, according to Kalshi traders.
Belichick’s odds currently trade around 60% to be out of the role by February, while Norvell and Fickell are priced at 92% and 67%, respectively.
The next most likely is Belichick’s upcoming opponent, Clemson’s head coach Dabo Swinney, who has been unable to return the program to the successes it achieved from 2015-2019.
Swinney is priced at 58% to be out by February 1, 2027.
Clemson favored to beat UNC this weekend
Belichick and Swinney will square off on Saturday in South Carolina when the Tar Heels travel to face Clemson at Memorial Stadium for their noon ET encounter.
Clemson, who is priced at 60% in the matchup, has started the year 1-1, beating Georgia Southern in week two after being defeated handily in their opening matchup.
During its clash with the LSU Tigers, Clemson was defeated 51-10 and mustered only 145 total yards of offense.
UNC on the other hand was able to upset the TCU Horned Frogs during a neutral site game in Ireland to begin the year. Last week, the squad defeated East Tennessee State 35-3, setting up their next real test with Clemson.
Odds of Clemson winning by more than 3.5 points are currently trading at 47%, down slightly from earlier this week when the market opened.
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