The week ahead: Big business and Big Brother

Good afternoon, traders.

I hope that your weekend was enjoyable and relaxing.

A lot happened last week, including the World Cup Final. Perhaps this week won't be as flashy, but there are still lots of interesting events and markets to unpack.

We’ll be starting with some markets surrounding company KPIs, and then head into what may be the furthest possible thing from corporate performance metrics: Big Brother.

The show premiered nearly two weeks ago, captivating audiences and sparking fierce dialogue, and looks to be getting even more dramatic this coming week. So let’s get into it.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with Big Brother.}

On Wednesday morning, Philip Morris will announce the shipment volume of Zyns for Q2 of 2026. This metric has been subject to serious debate after certain states drafted legislation to target flavored forms of tobacco possibly hurting projections, but many believe finance and frat bros aren't shying away from their new favorite form of nicotine.

Traders are pricing a 64% chance that the volume announced will exceed 185 million, and a 40% likelihood of it reaching above 190 million.

When I initially saw that the projections were this high, I thought to myself, “that’s a lot of Zyn.” But then I remembered I see the little pouches everywhere. In the cracks on the sidewalk, stuck to ceiling tiles; one somehow even managed to make it into my upper lip.

But just because Zyns appear to be everywhere, likely because their target audience doesn't know how to dispose of trash properly, doesn't mean their bottom line is going to be affected. We'll have to wait and see how this pans out.

Pivoting from Zyn (but not finance bros), the number of Active Brokerage Accounts in Q2 on Charles Schwab is a headline market. The massive multinational financial services company made waves earlier in Q2 after allowing retail investors to trade Bitcoin and Ethereum on the platform.

Though this was a big deal for individuals who like the idea of being able to check how their Roth IRA and crypto portfolio are doing on the same platform, Kalshi traders don’t seem to think that the alternative investments will have a significant effect on the number of accounts.

One thing to note is that hiring rates for recent college graduates have dropped significantly. Coincidentally, without jobs providing an income, graduates' ability to invest a portion of their income drops. While this might not be the craziest concept in the world, it's one that's worth thinking about regardless of whether or not you are trading on this market.

For the last company KPI market, we’re taking a look at the company that started accumulating your data before it was cool: Google. 

The tech giant is set to report its headcount later this week, and Kalshi traders are forecasting the number to be around 196,500. This means that if Sundar Pichai decided to address all of the company at once, there isn't a single stadium that would be able to accommodate all of them.

You can imagine that even with a headcount this large, which is still just a fraction of Amazon's or Walmart's, small variances can mean big swings.

At first, I was tempted to extrapolate how the possible results of the market impact the broader economy: a higher number than traders predict would perhaps indicate a better overall outlook and a lower number would indicate a poorer overall outlook. But after doing more research, I’ve come to the conclusion that big tech headcount isn’t a great economic indicator.

These companies are so large, profitable, and strategically “unusual” that their hiring decisions are really only indicative of circumstances specific to them. There have been mass layoffs during times of booming economic growth and mass hiring during stagnant periods, both with no real rhyme or reason.

So while we'll have to wait and see what Google's headcount is, there are plenty of other markets to trade to estimate the broader economy.

Switching gears entirely, Big Brother Season 28 premiered on July 9th with a “Time Trip” to celebrate the 1000th episode of the show.

If you aren’t familiar with the show, a group of contestants referred to as houseguests live together in a house under constant camera surveillance with little to no contact with the outside world. Each week, they compete to become Head of Household (HoH) and the winner nominates three people for eviction, who are then voted on to determine who gets kicked off the show.

Simultaneously, another competition awards the Power of Veto, which lets the winner save a nominee, thus making the HoH name a replacement. The remaining houseguests then vote to evict a nominee until only two contestants remain. Notably, a jury of previously evicted houseguests votes to crown the winner.

That's a lot, and you're probably thinking what I am: this is just another show that puts attractive people together, fosters drama, and packages it as entertainment. And while you are right, the reality is that this show has been around since 1999 and is still overwhelmingly popular with 3.88 million live and same-day viewers.

The show is entering its second full week with the house beginning to divide into real alliances and houseguests realizing that their relationships can become liabilities. 

Wednesday's 90-minute episode is expected to reveal the week's nominations, Power of Veto competition, and Veto ceremony. On Thursday, the three endangered houseguests will face the BB Blockbuster allowing one nominee to escape immediately before the remaining contestants vote to evict one of the remaining two. A new HoH will then take power, likely naturally disrupting the alliances now having formed inside the house.

Fans and traders alike are particularly watching Dee Valladares, former Survivor contestant Rick Devens, and Barrett Pfeiffer, after Ashley Trail was sent home by a 14-0 vote as the first evictee. But just like anything involving reality TV, things can change in an instant.

This week, Arizona voters headed to the polls Tuesday for primary elections. The Kalshi American Power Index (KPOW), which tracks the real-time balance of political power between the two parties, moved slightly toward Republicans as markets grew more confident in the GOP's odds of winning the presidency in 2028. However, Democrats still hold the edge.

Separately, Republicans held their slight edge on Senate control, while Democrats extended their already substantial lead in House odds for November.

Follow Jack Kuveke at Jabroni Capital
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}