With the Big Game 2026 only a few days away, Kalshi traders have priced Seattle as a significant favorite, with a 68% chance to defeat New England.
However, when it comes to Kalshi’s market on the pro football championship Most Valuable Player, there is much less of a consensus.
Not trading advice. This article is for informational purposes only. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NFL or Super Bowl LX.
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold is viewed as the most likely MVP. That is easy to understand, especially when you consider a quarterback has won this award in 14 of the past 19 (73.7%) seasons. That said, his current chances of winning are less than 50%.
Darnold as the Big Game’s Most Valuable Player would make for an incredible story. As a top pick of New York in 2018, Darnold was written off as a bust after struggling for multiple years. Now, he is the first quarterback to reach the mountaintop from a draft class that famously features Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.
Kalshi’s traders are currently pricing Sam Darnold at 45¢ to win MVP in Santa Clara. This listing is only slightly shy of Darnold’s peak price, which reached 45¢ in the hours after Seattle’s conference victory over Los Angeles.
Not only does Darnold play the most visible position on the favored team, but he is also quite familiar with the facilities at Levi’s Stadium. Darnold previously played a season as a backup for San Francisco, and many around the league credit SF head coach Kyle Shanahan for instilling his confidence as a passer.
Fast-forward to now, and Darnold is enjoying his best professional campaign to date. He compiled a 55.7 QBR, 4,048 yards (on 8.5 yards per attempt) and 25 touchdowns.
Darnold has also played efficiently this postseason. He completed 70.6% of his passes in the Divisional win against San Francisco. From there, Darnold bleached Los Angeles (R) for 346 yards and three scores in the NFC title game.
Behind Darnold, second-year New England signal caller Drake Maye is seen as the second-favorite for big-game MVP at Kalshi. He is currently priced with a 27% winning probability.
(Which brands will advertise during the Big Game? See Kalshi’s markets here.)
Maye played fabulously in 2025. Not only is he viewed as a contender to be named Most Valuable Player of the Big Game, but he is also a frontrunner to win the league MVP award.
Maye’s 77.1 QBR led all others this season. Additionally, his 31-8 TD-INT ratio exemplified his dominant play.
However, Maye has not looked as sharp in the playoffs. In wins over Los Angeles (C), Houston and Denver, New England produced 54 combined points. That is the lowest total for the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship rounds while still qualifying for the Big Game.
Maye will have every opportunity to steal the show in Silicon Valley. He will be the second-youngest quarterback (after Dan Marino in 1985) to start in the pro football title game. Maye also has a formidable shot to follow in the footsteps of Tom Brady by winning it all for New England in his sophomore season.
Seattle wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is the Offensive Player of the Year favorite (89%), just produced a campaign for the ages. Smith-Njigba’s 1,798 receiving yards in 2025 led the league and set Seattle’s single-season record by a wide margin. He found the end zone on 10 occasions, and his clip of 15.9 yards per catch was absolutely stellar.
In the big-game MVP market, Smith-Njigba shows a price of 17¢, which leaves him as the lone non-quarterback with a winning probability above 10%.
Smith-Njigba proved over the past two weeks that he is just as reliable in the playoffs. He logged one touchdown against San Francisco in the Divisional Round, and more recently tallied 153 yards and another score versus Los Angeles.
JSN is arguably the best route runner in the league. That notion is even more impressive when you realize it is only his third year as a pro. He beats man and zone coverage with ease, and his ability to pick up first downs is incredibly valuable. Smith-Njigba moved the chains 79 times in 2025, leaving him with a 66.4% first-down conversion rate.
The field
Following Darnold, Maye and Smith-Njigba, Seattle running back Kenneth Walker III is tagged with a 9% chance to be named as Most Valuable Player in Santa Clara. Across the way, New England tailback Rhamondre Stevenson is right behind Walker, trading at just three cents on Kalshi.
As of now, Seattle receiver/returner Rashid Shaheed is tagged with just a 2% probability to win the big-game MVP award.
The takeaway
With Seattle listed as a strong favorite in the Big Game 2026, quarterback Sam Darnold is priced as the favorite for Most Valuable Player. That is quite astonishing given that he is with his fourth different team in four years.
New England signal caller Drake Maye also has a real shot to win this award. However, Maye will need to power his side to victory for that to come to fruition, and Kalshi’s traders are bearish on New England.
It would also be unwise to count out Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While wideouts typically need to dominate the Big Game to attract recognition, we’ve seen this happen on numerous occasions in recent years. Receivers Cooper Kupp (2022), who now plays for Seattle, and Julian Edelman (2019) both earned big-game MVP honors for their efforts.
Kalshi markets now forecast:
Pro football championship MVP:
(Click here to view pro football’s Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year and other markets.)
Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.