The biggest primary day of 2026 is upon us

The 2026 Midterms are officially in full swing

Today is the biggest primary date of the cycle, with six states holding elections: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Idaho, and Oregon. Several of these races feature hotly contested primaries at the Senate, Governor, and House levels that will shape the direction of both parties heading into November.

Why should you care? Today, we'll see the outcome of the most expensive House primary ever recorded — Kentucky's 4th Congressional District — which has drawn more than $32 million in total spend. We'll also get a clearer read on what turnout patterns among Republicans and Democrats signal about the general election in the fall.

Here's a breakdown of the most closely watched races today.

(Click here to see all of Kalshi’s 2026 primary markets.)

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This is the headliner. Rep. Thomas Massie has represented northeastern Kentucky since 2012. A Massachusetts Institute of Technology-trained engineer, inventor, and farmer, his libertarian-leaning, fiscally hawkish brand has earned him a devoted following — but it has also put him on a collision course with the Republican establishment, and most consequentially, with President Trump.

On the other side: Ed Gallrein, a retired Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer hand-picked by President Trump to challenge Massie, a man Trump has publicly called the "worst Republican in Congress." Trump held a rally in Northern Kentucky to boost Gallrein and has wielded his political capital aggressively in this race, going after not only Massie but supporters like Lauren Boebert who have stood by him.

The money has poured in from across the country. Among the biggest spenders: MAGA KY Inc., a super PAC founded by former Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita and Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio, which has spent over $2.2 million opposing Massie, while the RJC Victory Fund — affiliated with the Republican Jewish Coalition — has spent an additional $362,000 against him. Pro-Massie PACs have countered with their own spending, and Massie's campaign raised over $1 million in a single "Save the Republic" fundraising push in May alone.

As for the markets: Massie held a consistent lead for much of the race. In the past week, Gallrein has narrowly edged ahead in prediction market odds, but this race is still on a razor’s edge.

Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp is ineligible to seek a third consecutive term, leaving the race wide open. Primary elections are scheduled for today, and in races where no candidate receives over 50% of the vote, a runoff will take place on June 16.

The Republican field is crowded. The frontrunner and Trump's endorsed candidate is Lt. Governor Burt Jones — a loyalist who has positioned himself squarely in the MAGA lane and has Trump's full backing. Also in the race: Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who has complicated history with Trump stemming from the 2020 election; former Attorney General Chris Carr; and businessman Rick Jackson, who entered the race with a reported $50 million war chest.

The markets are currently pricing this race as likely heading to a runoff, with no candidate expected to clear the 50% threshold today, but Burt Jones and Rick Jackson are seen as the two contenders most likely to be headed to the runoff. If that happens, the top two finishers will meet again on June 16th.

The relevant parallel from just this past Saturday: In Louisiana, Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow finished first with 45% of the Republican vote, but also fell short of a majority and will face state Treasurer John Fleming in a June 27 runoff. The question today in Georgia is the same one Louisiana raised: can a Trump-endorsed candidate dominate a crowded field, or does the vote split send this to a second round? Letlow overperformed expectations by a wide margin — will Burt Jones do the same?

This race has a similar structure. With incumbent Sen. Tommy Tuberville running for governor instead of seeking re-election, six Republicans are competing for the open seat. The leading contenders are Rep. Barry Moore — who carries Trump's endorsement — Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall, and former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson.

Moore was the first elected official in the country to endorse Trump for president back in 2015 and has built his entire Senate pitch around that loyalty. But recent polling shows him ahead of Marshall and Hudson, though not by a significant margin — leaving real uncertainty about whether he can avoid a runoff. In Alabama, a candidate must earn a majority of the vote to win outright; if no one does, a runoff is held between the top two vote-getters. That runoff, if needed, would also take place on June 16th, like in Georgia.

Republicans were once confident this was their best Senate pickup opportunity of the cycle. That confidence has cooled. Democrats have an 83% chance of winning this Senate race.

Three prominent GOP contenders are vying for the nomination to challenge Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff in November: Rep. Mike Collins, Rep. Buddy Carter, and former football coach Derek Dooley. 

Collins (GA-10) has been the consistent polling frontrunner — a Freedom Caucus conservative who has aggressively pitched himself as a Trump-aligned candidate, though he faces an ongoing House Ethics Committee investigation. Buddy Carter is a coastal Georgia congressman with a base anchored in the Savannah area. And then there's Derek Dooley — the son of legendary University of Georgia football coach Vince Dooley, himself a longtime college football coach, and a political newcomer who entered the race with the backing of Governor Brian Kemp after Kemp declined to run himself. Dooley has positioned himself as an outsider candidate, casting himself as a "conservative outsider" who would fight term limits, ban congressional stock trading, and end government shutdowns. 

With Trump declining to endorse any of the three candidates — and all of them touting their alignment with the president to win over MAGA voters — the race is expected to head to a June 16 runoff. Dooley has gained momentum in recent weeks as Kemp has intensified his support, and at least one recent poll places him in a strong second-place position.

One notable wrinkle: a Georgia Republican strategist noted that the Collins campaign actually wants Dooley to place second — their thinking being that Trump would likely stay on the sidelines in a Collins-Dooley runoff, but might endorse Collins if it's two congressmen facing off. 

Whoever emerges will face an uphill battle. Kalshi currently prices Democrats at around 83% to win Georgia's Senate seat. Ossoff has $31 million cash on hand and leads all Republican challengers in head-to-head polling by 3 to 9 points.

In Philadelphia, the race to succeed retiring Rep. Dwight Evans in Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District — rated the most Democratic-leaning district in the nation — has become a microcosm of the broader Democratic Party debate between its progressive and moderate wings.

Four Democrats are on the ballot: state Rep. Chris Rabb, Dr. Ala Stanford, state Sen. Sharif Street, and tax attorney Shaun Griffith. 

Rabb is viewed as the most progressive of the leading candidates. On the campaign trail, he has energized left-leaning rooms by vowing to buck his party if necessary and accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. He has earned endorsements from AOC, Ilhan Omar, Pramila Jayapal, the DSA, the Working Families Party, and Justice Democrats — and he was slated to appear on a streamed show hosted by Hasan Piker, the left-wing political streamer with millions of followers who has become a significant force in progressive politics. 

Stanford is a pediatric surgeon who rose to national prominence for her COVID-19 vaccine access work in underserved Philadelphia communities — and she carries the endorsement of outgoing Rep. Dwight Evans. Street, the son of former Philadelphia Mayor John Street, brings institutional credibility and years of experience in Harrisburg. 

This race is a direct test of where the Democratic Party's energy lies heading into November — with the progressive grassroots or the party establishment.

After the polls close tonight, we'll have a sharper picture of several big questions: Is the Trump endorsement a near-guarantee of victory? Are Republican voters consolidating behind MAGA-aligned candidates? And on the Democratic side, is the progressive wing continuing to gain ground against the establishment?

The 2026 cycle is heating up fast. Trade the action — and stay tuned for results tonight.

(Click here to see all of Kalshi’s 2026 primary markets.)

_{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who cannot trade on Kalshi. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}