Texas Senate odds: Democrats pull even as Trump endorses Paxton

President Trump's endorsement of Ken Paxton sent the Texas Senate markets moving in opposite directions — tightening the general election race while widening the gap in the Republican primary.

The Kalshi market for the Texas Senate race is now tied at 50% between the eventual Republican nominee and Democratic candidate James Talarico. Earlier this month, before Trump’s endorsement, the GOP was favored by as much as 57%.

As a result of the endorsement, there is now a wide gap between Paxton and Texas Sen. John Cornyn on the Texas Republican Senate nominee market. Paxton’s nomination is now priced at 93.1% and Cornyn’s is priced at 6.6%. Cornyn’s odds reached as high as 80% after forcing a runoff in the March 3 primary.

President Trump endorsed Paxton one week before the Texas Republican primary runoff election.

The New York Times’s Shane Goldmacher reported that President Trump "initially considered backing Mr. Cornyn after the first primary vote in early March…but in the end, he went with Mr. Paxton, who has been an unswerving Trump loyalist."

Goldmacher also points out that the move may have made the race more competitive for Democrats on election day in November. Paxton's candidacy comes with a lot of baggage, including a "history of indictment, impeachment and accusations of marital infidelity."

President Trump's endorsement of Paxton may already be reflected in new polling on the Texas Senate race.

USA Today reported that a new poll from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center found that Talarico has the highest favorability rating among the three candidates with 46% of likely voters. Paxton finished second at 42%, followed by Cornyn at 37%.

Another poll found if Cornyn won the runoff election on May 26, Cornyn would have the edge among likely voters at 45% over Talarico at 44%.

The race would be much closer if Paxton won the nomination. Paxton and Talarico tied among likely voters at 45% each.

Kalshi markets now predict

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