Georgia GOP Senate odds: Traders price Collins as favorite, but not before a runoff

As polls begin closing in some parts of Georgia, markets show Rep. Mike Collins priced as a clear favorite at 69%, followed by former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley at 30%, with the remaining 1% split among other candidates in the field.

But whatever the outcome of today’s election might be, some polls, along with Kalshi traders, suggest the pair may be headed to a runoff.

Fox 5 Atlanta reports that a new InsiderAdvantage poll shows Collins still holds the lead in the primary race but only at 32% of likely voters, followed by Dooley at 26%. If accurate, both are well short of the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.

Kalshi traders are also skeptical of an outright winner in this race, pricing the odds at only 10%.

Whichever candidate wins the Georgia Republican Senate primary, the Democrats seem to be the clear favorite in the general. The market for the Georgia Senate race in November shows the Democratic Party in the lead at 83% and the Republican Party at 17%.

The lack of a clear consensus candidate may have helped Democrats' chances of holding the seat, currently occupied by Sen. Jon Ossoff. Time Magazine reported that as the Republican primary field grew increasingly crowded, President Donald Trump did not provide an endorsement.

Politico also reported that the splintered support among Republicans gives Ossoff more time to "shore up his cash advantage and attack lines ahead of November.”

Kalshi markets now predict:

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