It’s not been a good week for bitcoin bulls, and many traders think it’s going to get a lot worse in 2026.
Kalshi’s market for Bitcoin's yearly low predicts the cryptocurrency will bottom out at $44,000 sometime before year's end. This would represent a decline of roughly 31% from the current price near $62,300.
Traders also assign a 56% chance of falling below $45,000 and a 42% chance of dropping below $40,000.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
What’s behind the drop?
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have gained more acceptance, thanks in part to the policies of President Donald Trump’s administration. However, Bitcoin's price has recently fallen to pre-election levels, and traders appear to think it could move even lower before year-end.
Fast Company reported that the price of Bitcoin has fallen “more than 15% this week to about $62,300 per coin. The coin is down over 23% over the last month and more than 40% year-over-year.”
Analysts have pointed to several factors behind the recent decline. Some suggest investors are shifting toward other high-growth opportunities, including artificial intelligence stocks and the anticipated SpaceX IPO. The growing enthusiasm for AI-related companies may have created attractive alternatives to cryptocurrencies.
Some market observers have also pointed to sales by prominent Bitcoin holders. Michael Saylor of Strategy Inc., for example, sold $2.5 million worth of Bitcoin last week.
Will the price ever improve?
Traders are also forecasting that the price of Bitcoin will hit $60,000 per coin before it hits $100,000. The market is currently listed at a price of 99%.
However, many analysts expect the currency will bounce back eventually.
Yahoo! Finance’s Brian Sozzi expects the price to rebound.
“Bitcoin prices have fallen below their 200-day moving average for the first time since 2023,” Sozzi wrote. “Historically, this has made for a good buying opportunity.”
It could take quite a while for Bitcoin to rally enough to reach its former high price. The cryptocurrency reached an all-time high in October of 2025 when it hit $125,000 after staging “an unprecedented, massive bull run.”
While some analysts believe the recent decline could eventually create a buying opportunity, Kalshi traders currently expect Bitcoin's downturn to continue before any sustained recovery takes hold.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
Bitcoin’s low price this year: $44K
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