For most of 2026, gold, the precious metal and hard commodity, looked poised to deliver a better return than its digital counterpart.
But Bitcoin, often referred to as “digital gold” given its popular use as a store of value and potential inflation hedge, has been fighting back amid its recent rally.
With just three months remaining until the turn of the year, the race has suddenly tightened.
Kalshi traders now give BTC a 47% chance of outperforming gold on the year, up from around 25.7% at this time last week.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Bitcoin’s surge has closed the gap
Odds of Bitcoin outperforming gold have climbed in recent weeks thanks in part to the cryptocurrency’s September surge.
The top crypto asset by market cap was recently changing hands around $83,668 on Friday, but had jumped as high as $86,000 earlier in the week, reaching an 8-month high in the process.
As it stands Bitcoin has now gained more than 7% in the last month of trading, according to data from CoinGecko. Those gains have come in the face of rising treasury yields, a Federal Reserve rate hike, and the failed procedural vote for the Clarity Act.
On the other hand, gold has been falling and is likely to post a weekly loss with analysts telling CNBC that the current interest rate situation and hawkish Fed “strengthens the dollar and is negative for gold.”
On Friday morning, gold prices had increased modestly to $4,312, but that marker is down more than 8% in the last month of trading.
Kalshi traders are becoming less optimistic about gold
When the month began, gold and Bitcoin had hit a new all-time high price correlation, according to a report from The Block.
But since that time the pair have been diverging, with their near-term and end-of-year price predictions diverging as well, according to Kalshi traders.
Kalshi traders make odds of gold finishing the year at $4,300 or above just 60% on Friday, down from as high as 72% earlier this month. Even higher prices, which would require a gain from the asset’s current price, are even less likely according to traders.
Odds for gold finishing at $4,500 have fallen even further, dropping more than 20 percentage points in recent days to trade around 31%. Traders give the commodity just a 12% chance of finishing at $5,000 or above, even while inflation remains a core issue.
Bitcoin has momentum
Meanwhile, traders have been improving the odds that Bitcoin will keep marching higher through the duration of the year. Odds for Bitcoin to at least hit $100,000 in the next three months have jumped to 38%, up 11 percentage points in the last week.
That’s in large part due to the asset’s recent surge, which has seen it rebound more than 43% from its June low of $58,566. As of Friday, Bitcoin has pulled its year-to-date performance back to -4.14%, according to data from Yahoo Finance.
Gold on the other hand has wiped away the gains it produced early in the year when it created a new all-time high in January and is now down around 1.7% year-to-date and trending the wrong direction when compared to BTC.
Those trends have made Kalshi traders more optimistic about Bitcoin’s chances at outperforming gold on the year. The odds are trading 47% after the week of rising Bitcoin prices.
At this time last week, odds of Bitcoin outperforming gold were just 25.7%.
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Image Source: André François McKenzie
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