Despite a New York Times report alleging Mary Peltola shoved and berated members of her staff with offensive slurs, traders price the Democratic candidate as the clear favorite to beat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan on Kalshi's Alaska Senate winner market.
The Alaska Senate race market shows Peltola leading at 74%, followed by Sullivan at 29%.
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Kalshi's separate Alaska Senate margin-of-victory market currently puts its highest price, 26%, on a Peltola victory of 3 to 6 percentage points. A Peltola victory of less than 3 points sits at 19%, while a Sullivan victory of less than 3 points is at 15%.
Peltola’s campaign
The New York Times’ Kellen Browning published a report Sept. 23, 2026, in which former Peltola aides described turmoil inside her Senate campaign and during her tenure in Congress.
Browning interviewed nine former Peltola aides. They describe angry and profane outbursts, sometimes directed at aides and constituents who displeased her.
One former staff member also alleged that Peltola shoved an aide, an account that two other people told the Times they had heard about at the time.
“In one instance, [Peltola] shoved an aide, according to a former staff member who was present and two others who were told about it at the time. Another conflict led to a surprising staff shake-up on the eve of the primary election last month.”
Former aides also told the Times that Peltola used slurs, including a homophobic slur directed at her own staff on multiple occasions.
Her campaign disputed several of the allegations, including the shove account, and attributed some of the described behavior to grief after she lost her mother and husband in 2023.
The Times reported that former aides described similar problems during Peltola's tenure in Congress.
“The volatility also affected the operations of Ms. Peltola’s congressional office,” Browning wrote. “During her brief tenure in the House, she amassed one of the highest staff turnover rates on Capitol Hill.”
The trawling issue
Fishing policy has also emerged as an issue in the Senate race, with Peltola and Sullivan highlighting competing approaches to trawling and bycatch.
The Hill reported that declining salmon, crab and halibut stocks have intensified debate over large-scale trawling and bycatch, in which fishing vessels unintentionally catch species other than their primary target.
Peltola has called for a moratorium on large-scale factory trawling by fishing companies and “a crackdown on ‘factory trawlers,’ ships that process and harvest fish onboard.”
The Hill reported that Peltola's background working on commercial fishing boats could give her an advantage in making the issue central to her campaign.
“Some of the fisheries that have sustained generations of Alaskans are suffering at the hands of Lower 48 factory trawlers, and we need to take action,” Peltola said in a statement.
Sullivan has also proposed legislation addressing trawling and bycatch. Sullivan has authored legislation aimed at reducing bycatch from pollock trawling. The measure would establish new monitoring standards and test technology designed to reduce disturbances to the seafloor. The Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee advanced the bill last week.
The winner market shows a much wider gap than recent polling. Recent surveys have generally shown a close race, with individual September polls ranging from a three-point Sullivan lead to a six-point Peltola lead.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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