Kalshi's “blue wave” market has climbed over 9 percentage points in one week as recent polls show Democrats gaining ground ahead of the midterms.
The “blue wave” is defined by Democrats controlling 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats after the midterms. Traders now price the chances of that happening at 83.6%, up from 73.8%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below.
Signs of a blue wave
The market's rise comes as several recent polls show an improving environment for Democrats.
The New York Times’ Nate Cohn wrote Sunday, Sept. 20, that recent polling showed “the potential” for a Democratic wave in November.
“On average, Democrats lead by more than eight points among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they intend to support for Congress in their district,” Cohn wrote. “If Democrats win by that margin in November, it would essentially match the 2018 blue wave and exceed other wave elections, like those in 1994, 2006, and 2010.”
Some of those improved polls include a recent New York Times/Siena poll showing Democrats are up by 8.5 points. According to Cohn, polls from Quinnipiac University, Marquette University Law School, and YouGov/Economist “all gave Democrats double-digit leads.”
Some Republican candidates in competitive races have also publicly broken with Trump on specific policies.
The Daily Beast’s Farrah Tomazin wrote that the Cook Political Report's latest Battleground District Project poll found Democrats leading Republicans 49%-47% among likely voters across 37 competitive House districts. Trump carried those districts by an average of five points in 2024.
“Democrats now hold a two-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot while Trump is about 16 points underwater, with most Americans disapproving of his performance,” Tomazin wrote. “What’s more, according to the poll, Democrats also hold advantages on the economy, inflation, and energy costs – areas that have traditionally been GOP strong suits.”
Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar of Florida also broke with Trump over immigration enforcement in a campaign ad on Thursday, Sept. 17. The ad says “the same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today” and “Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far.”
The Washington Post reported that Democrats increasingly see Trump's low approval ratings, high prices, and the Iran war as political vulnerabilities for Republicans heading into November.
“Recent escalations in the war in Iran, including an attack on a major pipeline in Saudi Arabia, mean the rising gas prices bedeviling Republicans will not be going down anytime soon,” The Post reported. “Republicans have not been able to bring prices under control more generally. And President Donald Trump’s unpopularity is at near-record levels.”
Will there be a blue tsunami?
The related “blue tsunami” market has also moved higher, rising 6.5 percentage points in five days.
The market for a blue tsunami this year increased from 40.5% to 47.0% in five days.
What’s the difference?
Kalshi’s markets define the terms according to the number of House and Senate seats Democrats hold after the 2026 midterms.
As mentioned above, a “blue wave” requires Democrats to hold at least 218 House seats and 49 Senate seats, while the “blue tsunami” contract requires at least 235 House seats and 51 Senate seats.
The “blue wave” market now sits at 83.0%, while the higher-threshold “blue tsunami” contract remains at 47.0%.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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