Canada and Morocco meet today in Houston with a spot in the quarterfinals on the line.
Canada is in unfamiliar territory after winning a World Cup knockout match for the first time in program history. Meanwhile, Morocco may be experiencing a sense of déjà vu. The team defeated Canada in the 2022 group stage before becoming the first African nation to reach the World Cup semifinals.
Traders on Kalshi give Morocco a 72% chance to advance, reflecting a squad ranked sixth in the world and fresh off eliminating the Netherlands on penalties. Canada sits at 29%, a number that still represents a milestone. The winner advances to the quarterfinals, where the winner of France vs. Paraguay awaits.
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What's at stake
Canada finished second in Group B, salvaging four points from a draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina and a 6-0 rout of Qatar before a 2-1 loss to Switzerland.
Stephen Eustaquio's injury-time volley beat South Africa in the Round of 32, delivering Canada's first-ever World Cup knockout win. Alphonso Davies has returned from injury but has yet to start, leaving his fitness as one of the match's biggest open questions.
Morocco, meanwhile, finished second in Group C behind Brazil on goal difference, holding the five-time champions to a draw before beating Scotland and Haiti.
The Atlas Lions then survived a penalty shootout against the Netherlands, with Yassine Bounou saving a crucial attempt before Ismael Saibari converted the winning kick.
Coach Mohamed Ouahbi, who took over in March, has downplayed the pressure of history, telling TSN simply that "nobody is unbeatable."
Reaching the semifinals
A win today will send either Canada or Morocco to the World Cup quarterfinals. But what do traders think of each team's chances beyond today's match?
Morocco is currently priced at 20% to reach the semifinals, while Canada sits at 5% to make the final four.
The bigger picture
At the tournament-winner market, Morocco sits at 2.6%, a real figure for a side that already reached the semifinals in 2022.
Canada is priced at 0.1%, reflecting the distance between a historic knockout run and the trophy itself, not any lack of belief in a team making World Cup history of its own this summer.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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