NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds and predictions: Garrett leads at 19% as Anderson closes in

One of the most riveting NFL award markets is for Defensive Player of the Year.

Usually, the league’s best sack artists are vying for their place in history. Last year in Cleveland, Myles Garrett made quite the inarguable case with a league-record 23.0 sacks in Cleveland.

Garrett has a new home in 2026, which might open the board for other top NFL stars. Who could bring home the hardware?

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It’s hard for a director who wins the Oscar for “Best Picture” to repeat. How can Myles Garrett possibly top last year’s record-setting campaign?

Well, the plot is certainly changing. Garrett was traded to the L.A. Rams this offseason as last year's NFC runner-ups are making an all-in run at the title. He will now take Jared Verse's spot in commanding Sean McVay's defense.

The Rams' win total is trading on Kalshi at 57% likely to win at least 12 games, so Garrett will actually be featured in several more marquee contests than he was with the 5-12 Browns a year ago. That attention should help build a case to defend his throne.

However, Garrett's recent slide in this market might be due to minor knee swelling during training camp.

The Texans ranked second in yards per play (4.7) allowed last year. After adding nose tackle Kayden McDonald in April’s draft, the best defense in the NFL could come from H-Town.

There’s no doubt that Will Anderson Jr. is their leader. The former No. 3 overall pick in the draft put himself on the map with 12.0 sacks in 2025.

Garrett wasn’t the only one in this market who made offseason headlines. Anderson Jr. broke the bank with a record $150 million extension, as a testament to what Houston thinks of him.

If there is a drawback to his candidacy, it is that Danielle Hunter (15.5 sacks) is a great running mate at the Texans' other EDGE spot, so the counting stats might vary depending on which one of those two finishes more plays.

There might be no defender in football who does more for a playoff-level defense than Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson.

We saw that in 2024 when Hutchinson broke his leg. He still led the team in sacks (7.5), and they tumbled to just 23rd in the league’s rankings in that statistical category with 37.

Facing the NFL's easiest projected schedule, Detroit is favored at Kalshi to win at least 11 games compared to their 9-8 record a year ago. Hutchinson will be a huge reason why their defense can hold up its end of the bargain, especially after cornerback Terrion Arnold was released in July.

You can see the activity in Maxx Crosby's trading history from when we thought the star EDGE was headed to the Baltimore Ravens, who have the fourth-best odds to win it all.

The Raiders are 28th in those same odds, which might be why “Mad Maxx” lags behind his contemporaries coming off another double-digit sack campaign despite terrible personnel around him. He also batted down six passes.

If rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza helps Las Vegas compete, Crosby’s disruptive impact might get more attention.

Only the Broncos, at 4.5 yards per play, had Houston beat defensively on a per-play basis a year ago. That makes Nik Bonitto (3% at Kalshi) an interesting candidate for this award. Even more pressure could be thrust onto him if fellow pass-rushing specialist Jonathan Cooper is sidelined for a suspension after offseason turmoil.

Since 2014, only two cornerbacks have won this award. Christian Gonzalez (2% at Kalshi) is one of the leaders at the position, entering the year as the Patriots' top defender. Mike Vrabel had a profound impact on the New England defense a year ago, and Gonzalez allowed the seventh-lowest opposing passer rating when targeted (64.4), which was a huge reason why they won the AFC title.

The last safety to win the Defensive Player of the Year award was Troy Polamalu in 2010. With the rise of the "big nickel" impact at safety, could I present Baltimore's Kyle Hamilton (3% at Kalshi) as a sleeper? Hamilton's multi-level impact is well-regarded in the league, and he finished 10th in DPOY voting in 2024.

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