Gridiron football is a physically taxing sport, and Saturday’s Divisional Playoff games were exemplary of that.
Despite top-seeded Denver defeating Buffalo in an overtime thriller, Denver quarterback Bo Nix suffered a fracture in his right ankle just two plays before the game-winning field goal.
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With Nix sidelined until the summer, Denver’s price to win the Pro football championship has dropped on Kalshi. Just yesterday, Denver’s odds hit a high of 20%. Those odds have now dropped to 9%, leaving them fifth overall.
Say it ain’t so, Bo
Nix, a second-year starter out of Oregon, displayed noticeable improvement this season, passing for nearly 4,000 yards and earning a 58.4 QBR (up from 53.5 in 2024). He was also instrumental in Denver’s recent victory over Buffalo, accounting for 308 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns. As a result, Denver secured its first postseason win since hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in 2016.
What makes Nix’s injury especially frustrating is that this team also has the sort of defense that can go the distance. They allowed only 18.3 PPG this year while registering a franchise-record 68 sacks. On Saturday, they sacked Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen three times in addition to 10 QB hits.
AFC Champions?
Denver has just one contest before the pro football championship. And despite Nix’s injury, the team’s chances of winning the AFC have climbed.
Last Thursday, Denver showed a 25.3% probability to win the American conference. As of now, Kalshi’s traders have Denver priced at 35¢ (the second favorite) while they await their next opponents, which will be the winner of Houston-New England (Sunday at 3 p.m. ET). Either way, Denver will maintain home-field advantage.
Word of Nix’s fractured ankle took many by surprise, as the injury came on a mostly insignificant play (click here for the VIDEO). However, Nix played until the final offensive snap, which gave way to Denver kicker Will Lutz’s 23-yard walk-off field goal.
Head coach Sean Payton announced that six-year pro Jarrett Stidham will inherit Denver’s starting quarterback duties. Be that as it may, “Denver vs. Seattle” is still viewed as the second-most likely big-game matchup at Kalshi.
Next man up
Stidham has not started a game since 2023, which was his first season playing in Colorado’s capital. He also brings prior playing experience from Las Vegas and New England.
Overall, Stidham is tagged with an 8-8 TD-INT ratio. He’s completed 59.4% of his pass attempts throughout 20 total games played. With Denver, Stidham has seen action in just three games, throwing for 496 yards and two scores.
Ironically, Stidham and Nix share a collegiate alma mater.
Before Nix transferred to Oregon, he played three seasons at Auburn University from 2019 to 2021. Stidham was the starting quarterback immediately prior, appearing in 27 contests for Auburn between 2017 and 2018.
(Indiana or Miami? Who wins college football’s title?)
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now forecast:
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