Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire earlier this month, but a sharp decline in SpaceX and Tesla shares has already prompted traders to question how long he'll keep the title.
The market for Musk’s net worth falling below $1 trillion this year shows a 68% chance.
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Another market predicting how rich Musk will get before the end of the year also shows a sharp drop to $984.6 billion.
The market for his net worth on June 30 now predicts a price of $972.2 billion, suggesting traders see him slipping below the trillion-dollar mark within days.
What’s causing the drop?
Musk’s SpaceX may have made him a trillionaire, but its current performance on the stock market has created some doubt that he’ll be able to maintain his trillionaire status.
Fortune reported that Musk owns 5 billion shares in SpaceX, which is tied to the vast majority of his net worth. Even though SpaceX’s IPO started with a top valuation of $2.78 trillion after gaining 20% in its first day of trading, “The stock lost 16.43% yesterday, a selloff of approximately $400 billion. Its market cap currently sits at $2.03 trillion.”
Musk’s Tesla shares also saw a significant drop on the market. The automaker’s shares dropped by 6.6% over the past month and more than 7% for the year to date, according to Fortune.
The losses in the market caused Musk’s net worth to drop from “a peak of $1.32 trillion to $1.06 trillion.”
What caused SpaceX’s losses?
Tech stocks like SpaceX have seen some significant losses across the board on June 22 and June 23, 2026.
CBS News reported several tech stocks saw some major selloffs over those two days “as investors questioned whether artificial intelligence will generate the profits that have fueled lofty valuations for companies.”
The selloffs caused the Nasdaq Composite to lose 580 points, or 2.2%, on June 23, 2026, a second straight day of losses, according to CBS News.
SpaceX and Tesla weren’t the only tech heavyweights to see such huge selloffs in a short amount of time. Stocks for Nvidia and Alphabet, the parent company of Google, also saw huge losses that week due to wariness over reliance on artificial intelligence.
Nigel Green, the CEO of the financial consultancy deVere Group, told the outlet, “For a long time, the market treated AI spending as unquestionably positive. Investors are now becoming more demanding. They want evidence that unprecedented spending will translate into unprecedented profits.”
The drop has prediction markets split on timing: traders still favor Musk staying above the trillion-dollar mark through June 30, but pricing now suggests his trillionaire status is in real jeopardy before the year ends if the weakness in SpaceX and Tesla shares continues.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
Musk’s net worth falling below $1 trillion this year: 68%
How rich Musk will get before 2027: $984.6 billion
Musk’s net worth on June 30: $972.2 billion
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
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