Last Friday, Anthropic disabled its powerful Fable 5 model after the Trump administration slapped export restrictions on the artificial intelligence company. But many Kalshi traders seem to believe access will be restored soon.
The market on the date Anthropic will restore access prices a 57% chance before July 1, which is two weeks away. There’s also a 67% chance access is restored before July 10, and a 75% chance it happens before July 17.
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From Mythos preview to Fable 5's launch
The Trump administration's restrictions came two months after Anthropic previewed Claude Mythos Preview, another one of its models, to a select group of companies. Mythos easily detects software bugs, leading researchers to worry about bad actors exploiting zero-day vulnerabilities before they can be patched. Anthropic limited Mythos's release to companies such as Microsoft and Apple "to raise awareness" about securing code, according to its chief science officer at the time.
The company rolled out Fable 5, which shares an underlying model with Mythos, to the public in early June. Anthropic limited Fable 5's capabilities, launching it with safeguards such as disabling its ability to answer certain biology and chemistry questions.
Amazon's bypass and the calls that led to the ban
However, researchers at Amazon were reportedly able to bypass some of these safeguards, and Amazon CEO Andy Jassy reportedly called U.S. officials on Thursday to alert them to the vulnerability.
Wired reported that Jassy first tried to dial Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, but Amodei didn't pick up (Amazon has a large stake in Anthropic). The administration reportedly tried to reach Amodei on Friday to discuss the matter, but they were unable to initially reach him. According to Business Insider, Amodei eventually had three calls with a cadre of cabinet officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Amodei reportedly defended the model, explaining that Amazon's bypass did not equate to a "jailbreak." But later that day, Lutnick sent a letter to Amodei explaining that Mythos 5 and Fable 5 models would face export controls, banning access to any foreign national, including Anthropic employees. Anthropic responded by disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers.
Anthropic's IPO timeline
It comes after Anthropic filed to go public earlier this month. Kalshi traders believe Anthropic will likely IPO before OpenAI, giving them a 77% chance of going ahead of its chief rival.
Trump's new AI executive order
The Trump administration is taking an increasingly active stance with AI companies. Earlier this month, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, asking AI companies to voluntarily share models with advanced capabilities with the government up to 30 days before being shared with other partners.
Anthropic's Pentagon dispute
Anthropic has been engulfed in disputes with the Trump administration since the beginning of the year. On Feb. 27, the Pentagon deemed Anthropic a "supply chain risk" after the company behind Claude A.I. pushed for restrictions on using its models for fully autonomous lethal weapons. Trump later ordered civilian agencies to stop using Anthropic's models, but a federal judge blocked Trump's directive.
Where Claude stands in the AI race
Anthropic's dispute with the administration doesn't seem to have dimmed the nearly-trillion-dollar company's ability to produce top-tier models. Kalshi traders still believe Claude has the greatest chance at leading the AI race, giving Claude a 62.4% chance of being awarded the best AI at the end of 2026.
The takeaway
Image Credit: TechCrunch Disrupt
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The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.
