Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has extended his lead over Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton on Kalshi's Texas Senate election market.
Earlier this week, the pair were virtually tied. But now Talarico’s chances are priced at 54%, while Paxton sits at 46%.
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Recent polls
Talarico also leads Paxton in a new Texas Senate poll.
Newsweek reported that a SoCal Strategies poll shows Talarico leading at 50% and Paxton lagging behind at 45%.
The latest polling comes days after Paxton appeared at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, where Trump offered a mixture of praise and criticism for the Republican nominee.
Trump’s support
KERA News reported that Paxton delivered a roughly seven-minute speech focused on his economic proposals and criticism of Talarico. He also spoke just hours before President Donald Trump made his appearance.
Trump reiterated his support for Paxton and promised to return to Texas to campaign for him, while also mocking the attorney general's appearance, clothing and speaking style.
“The president doesn’t like to back someone who might lose,” University of Texas at Arlington political science professor Rebecca Deen told KERA. “So I think that in some ways, it is a small indicator of at least what the president thinks are the stakes for Mr. Paxton.”
Paxton's 2023 impeachment has also become an issue in the Senate campaign. The New York Times reported that Talarico has made Paxton's impeachment a focus of his campaign and political advertising. One of Talarico’s ads called Paxton “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”
The Texas House impeached Paxton in 2023, but the Texas Senate later acquitted him on all 16 articles considered at trial. The Times described the impeachment as a “defining episode” in Paxton's political career and noted that Talarico has made it a central issue in the campaign.
“It was the moment that he came closest to political ruin and it was a testament to his uncanny resilience – a trait not unlike the survival skills associated with his twice-impeached ally, President Trump,” The Times reported.
Senate control
Meanwhile, Democrats have also extended their lead on Kalshi's U.S. Senate control market.
Chances of Democrats retaking the chamber rose from 52% to 55%, while Republicans slipped from 48% to 45%.
In its analysis accompanying the experts' assessments, Times Opinion pointed to presidential approval, primary turnout, and special-election performance as indicators it viewed as favorable to Democrats. Four of the six predicted that the Democrats would at least regain control of the Senate while two said the election would end with an “even Senate” outcome.
“For Republicans, the political environment is worse than it was in 2018,” The Times wrote. “The most reliable indicators of midterm performance point to Democratic strength: weak presidential approval, lower turnout in Republican primaries, and compared with 2018, the same or worse performance in special elections.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict
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