Kalshi markets are projecting surging gas prices in the weeks ahead, as stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations keep the Strait of Hormuz blockade in place.
The projected price for gas in the U.S. this month increased to $4.30 since Monday.
This week's U.S. gas-price forecast, which stretches into the month of May, rose from $4.30 on Monday to $4.40.
Longer-term forecasts are also rising. In Kalshi’s U.S. gas prices this year market, the forecast jumped from $5 to $5.30. Traders now price a move above $5 per gallon this year at 62%, up 22 percentage points.
The price of gas
AAA reports the national average now sits at $4.229, but it is projected to get higher soon.
Patrick De Haan, the head of petroleum analysis for the gas price app GasBuddy, wrote on X that gas prices could top $4.50 within a week "as oil screams higher today as risk of an extended blockade grow" in the Strait of Hormuz.
What’s causing the increase?
The price spike comes as negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remain stalled.
Axios reported that President Donald Trump turned down the latest offer for a deal from Iranian officials, ensuring that the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz will remain in place for the time being.
Iran presented a proposal to end the war and the blockade in the strait, but President Trump rejected it because it did not address the country's plans to continue its nuclear program. The president told Axios, "It is going to be worse for them. They can't have a nuclear weapon."
Axios also reported that U.S. Central Command is planning another wave of "short and powerful" strikes on Iran "in the hopes of breaking the negotiating deadlock" that would include infrastructure targets. U.S. negotiators plan to return to the table after the strikes are complete, seeking greater flexibility from Iran.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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