A ceasefire agreement between Lebanon, Iran, and the U.S. will reportedly include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting optimism on two key Kalshi markets.
Traders price the chances of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal before June at 67%, followed by before May 15 at 50%, and before the start of May at 32%.
Traders expect traffic through the Strait of Hormuz to begin to improve as early as this week. Kalshi markets forecast 65.6 transit calls through the strait by Sunday. The forecast increased by 17.6% percentage points after the ceasefire agreement was announced earlier today.
Oil and gas prices
The reopening of the key oil transportation route is already showing early signs of relief at the gas pump.
NBC News reported that the price of crude oil dropped 12% to $83 per barrel, and Brent crude fell by 10% to approximately $89 per barrel.
The drop in oil prices could signal that gas prices may begin to fall. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for the gas price monitoring app GasBuddy, wrote on X that gas prices could start to fall over the weekend to below $4 per gallon, averaging $3.65 to $3.85.
President Trump’s blockade
The strait may be open for commercial ships, but President Donald Trump noted that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ships will remain.
The New York Times reported that President Trump made the announcement about the continued blockade on Truth Social.
The extent of the blockade isn’t known, but Iran said earlier this week that it would retaliate if the blockade isn’t removed.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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