Two familiar foes will battle for the US Open women’s singles crown on Saturday.
The top two seeds, No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka and No. 2 Elena Rybakina, will meet for the 18th time in their careers when they take the court in Arthur Ashe Stadium.
For Sabalenka, the match offers the opportunity to claim her third straight US Open tournament title, a feat last accomplished by Serena Williams. Rybakina on the other hand has a chance to earn her first US Open title just days before she’ll officially be awarded the world No. 1 ranking.
Ahead of the matchup, Kalshi traders price Sabalenka as the favorite at 58%, with Rybakina’s odds at 42%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is a proud partner of the US Open.
Sabalenka vs. Rybakina head-to-head
Sabalenka and Rybakina have already played each other twice in Grand Slam finals, including once earlier this year. Rybakina edged the Belarusian in the Australian Open finals in January in three sets to win her second ever Grand Slam title.
Three years earlier, it was Sabalenka who left Melbourne victorious, defeating Rybakina in three sets in the 2023 Australian Open final to win her first ever Grand Slam title.
But beyond those meetings, the pair have met in various tournaments, on every surface, typically in the later stages of critical events. Despite faltering in their first meeting this year, Sabalenka has won the last two encounters, winning in the finals at Indian Wells and the semifinals of Miami during the early American hard court season.
Overall, the edge lands with Sabalenka as well, having won 10 of their 17 lifetime meetings.
But aside from the three extra victories, very little separates the pair.
Both are among the most powerful ball strikers in all of tennis, possessing enough power to push opponents off the court and hold their serves with relative ease. For the year, each has held 81.5% of their service games, placing them in a tie atop the leaderboard for percentage of service games won.
Neither is a slouch on return, though it’s Sabalenka who holds a small edge in the department. The Belarusian has won 37.1% of her return games compared to just 32.4% for Rybakina during the course of the year.
Both entered with question marks, but have been dominant in path to finals
Prior to the tournament, questions surrounded Rybakina’s health. After a deep run to the finals in Toronto she was forced to retire mid-match during her quarterfinal round bout with Iga Swiatek in Cincinnati.
Though she stayed off her feet coming into New York, she quickly found her footing in the Big Apple and didn’t lose a set through her first four rounds.
It wasn’t until her quarterfinal match with Qinwen Zheng that Rybakina dropped a set, falling 6-3 in the opener before rallying back to win the last two sets. The incoming world No. 1 also lost her opening set to Coco Gauff in the semifinals, but once more battled back, even overcoming being broken while serving for the match.
The questions surrounding Sabalenka’s entry to New York were about her level. The tournament top seed has faltered late in every Grand Slam event this year, entering New York without a major victory thus far.
But she hasn’t lost at the US Open since 2023 and quickly found her best on the hard courts in Queens.
She’s dropped just one set all tournament, losing the middle set to Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the quarterfinals before winning in a match tiebreak.
She followed that performance with likely her best to date, hitting American Jessica Pegula off the court during the semifinals in a comprehensive victory.
US Open women’s single final odds and key details
Sabalenka opened the tournament as the favorite to hoist the trophy for the third consecutive year, and she’ll enter the final the same way, priced at 58% to retain her crown. Kalshi traders make Elena Rybakina the underdog at 42%.
Regardless of what happens, traders are expecting a tight affair. As of Friday afternoon, odds of more than 23.5 games trading at 50%.
Exact set outcomes, like 2-0 or 2-1 in favor of either player, are almost evenly priced, though a slight edge is given to Sabalenka winning 2-0 at 34%.
The US Open women’s singles final will take place on Saturday, September 12 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi | Follow Logan Hitchcock on X: LHitch09 |
Image Source: Manuela Davies, USTA
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to trade any specific product. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Trading event contracts and trading leveraged products, including perpetual futures, involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC. Kalshi is a proud partner of the US Open.
