The World Cup's round of 32 continues today as Germany opens its knockout campaign against Paraguay in Foxborough, Massachusetts, with a place in the round of 16 on the line. Germany won Group E comfortably, but a surprise loss to Ecuador in the final group game has left some questions heading into the knockout stage.
Paraguay, by contrast, has built its run on defensive discipline rather than firepower, grinding out a place in the bracket as one of the tournament's best third-place finishers. The four-time champions are the clear favorites, but Paraguay's coach has made clear his team isn't here to be intimidated.
Kalshi traders give Germany an 86% chance to advance, with Paraguay sitting at 15%.
What's at stake
Germany topped Group E with two wins and a loss, while Paraguay advanced as a third-place qualifier out of Group D, going unbeaten in their final two matches after an opening defeat.
Whoever wins in Foxborough advances to face the winner of France and Sweden in the round of 16, a meeting set for Wednesday in Philadelphia.
Germany's group-stage run
Germany opened the tournament in dominant fashion, routing Curaçao 7-1 behind a Kai Havertz brace, before needing a late goal from substitute Deniz Undav to escape with a 2-1 win over Ivory Coast. The run hit a snag in the final group match, where Ecuador rallied from behind to beat Germany 2-1, the first time the four-time champions have lost a group game in this tournament cycle. Undav leads Germany with three goals so far, with Havertz right behind him after his brace against Curaçao.
Germany forward Kai Havertz, named Player of the Match for his brace, said the result should "give us a lot of confidence" heading into the tournament. Defender Nico Schlotterbeck, who scored in that opener, will miss the rest of the World Cup with an ankle injury, with Antonio Rüdiger expected to start in his place against Paraguay.
Paraguay's group-stage run
Paraguay's path to the knockout stage was far less convincing on paper. La Albirroja opened with a 4-1 defeat to co-hosts the United States, then steadied with a 1-0 win over Türkiye, playing most of the second half a man down after a red card to Miguel Almirón. A goalless draw with Australia made it back-to-back clean sheets and was enough to lock up a spot among the tournament's best third-place finishers. Gustavo Gómez anchors a defense that hasn't conceded in two straight matches, while Almirón, back from that one-match suspension, gives the attack its most direct outlet.
Paraguay coach Gustavo Alfaro struck a defiant tone ahead of the match, pointing to his team's run through South American qualifying against bigger names. His side had already gone toe-to-toe with Argentina and Brazil, he said, and come through those tests fine. "They're all candidates for world champions," Alfaro said of the comparison to Germany.
The two nations have met twice before: a 1-0 Germany win in the round of 16 at the 2002 World Cup, sealed by a late Oliver Neuville goal on Germany's way to the final, and a 3-3 friendly draw in 2013. Germany has never lost to Paraguay, but Monday's stakes are higher than either of those meetings, with Paraguay's best-ever World Cup finish, a 2010 quarterfinal run, on the line if they're going to make this one count.
Reaching the quarterfinals
Looking just one round ahead, Germany's odds to reach the quarterfinals sit at 30% on Kalshi, a figure that accounts for both today's match and a likely round of 16 test against France. That's a steep drop from the 86% Germany carries into the Paraguay match alone, a reminder of how quickly the bracket tightens once the knockout rounds begin.
The bigger picture
Zooming out further, Germany's odds to win the World Cup outright sit at 3.8% on Kalshi, placing the four-time champions well behind the tournament's top contenders. France remains the market's clear favorite at 24.2%, with Argentina close behind.
A win today wouldn't change Germany's status as a longer-shot pick, but it would keep alive their bid to reach the latter stages for the first time since lifting the trophy in 2014.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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