Giannis trade odds: Boston surges past Miami for Antetokounmpo's next team

Kalshi traders now see Boston, not Miami, as the frontrunner to land Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Traders on the Kalshi market for Antetokounmpo's next team now put Boston at 63%, Miami at 36%, and staying with Milwaukee or retiring at 5%, a sharp shift from where Kalshi's earlier coverage of the Giannis sweepstakes had previously positioned the field.

^{For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with the NBA, Boston Celtics, Miami Heat or Milwaukee Bucks. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a Kalshi shareholder.}

The shift in trader sentiment follows a report that Boston has already made a formal trade offer for Antetokounmpo.

Yahoo Sports reported that Boston submitted an offer to Milwaukee within the past week, according to Bill Simmons on his podcast. "From what I heard, they made an offer in the past week," Simmons said. "I don't know what the offer was, and I don't know who was in it, but they are in it. Their hat was in the ring."

NBA reporter Zach Lowe, appearing alongside Simmons, said Boston's interest goes well beyond a routine call, describing the team as "not just dipping their toe in, but diving in" on a potential deal.

Boston faces its own financial constraints in pursuing a deal. Antetokounmpo is set to earn $58.5 million next season and is eligible for a massive extension, and Boston president Brad Stevens has said the team needs more interior impact.

Miami has long been viewed as one of the most aggressive suitors for Antetokounmpo. Earlier reporting described "strong interest" from Miami, with a trade package centered on Tyler Herro heading to Milwaukee, according to CBS Sports.

Reported details of Miami's offer have shifted over the past week. Various versions have centered on Herro, Ware, Jaquez Jr., Larsson and Jakučionis in different combinations, along with multiple first-round picks, according to multiple outlets.

Boston's entry into the bidding has pushed Miami behind in trader sentiment for the first time this offseason.

Milwaukee enters the draft in a difficult position. The team finished the 2025-26 season 32-50, missed the playoffs, changed coaches and saw tensions grow between the organization and Antetokounmpo, according to Yahoo Sports.

Milwaukee co-owner Wes Edens has acknowledged the stakes directly: "Either he will be extended, or he'll be traded."

Traders have been pricing in a possible move for months. Back in January, Kalshi markets had Milwaukee/retire as the favorite at 41%, with Golden State, New York and Minnesota all in the mix alongside Miami. That field has since narrowed, and Milwaukee/retire now sits at just 5%.

Milwaukee also holds the No. 10 overall pick in Tuesday's draft, regardless of how the Antetokounmpo situation resolves. Kalshi traders give Tennessee's Nate Ament the best odds to be the pick at 26%, with Kingston Flemings second at 15%.

Kalshi markets now predict

Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi

^{This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}