Harry Kane scored twice in England's World Cup opener against Croatia, but the Golden Ball and Golden Boot races have only gotten more crowded since. Lionel Messi's hat trick against Algeria reshuffled both markets, and Kane has work to do to climb back toward the top.
Kane is currently priced third on the Golden Ball Winner market at 12%, behind Messi at 35% and Kylian Mbappe at 26%.
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Kane is also priced fourth on the Golden Boot Winner market at 13%, trailing Erling Haaland at 14%, Mbappe at 34%, and Messi at 38%. Messi's odds jumped after his hat trick against Algeria pushed him past Miroslav Klose as the all-time leading scorer in men's World Cup history.
Meanwhile, England's climb to 11.6% on the World Cup Winner market puts the Three Lions as the fourth most likely to win, behind France at 18.5%, Argentina at 14.3%, and Spain at 13.4%.
England's opening match
England opened its World Cup campaign against Croatia at AT&T Stadium in Dallas on June 17 and won 4-2 in a chaotic Group L opener.
According to the BBC, Kane opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 12th minute after the kick was ordered retaken for encroachment. Croatia leveled it through Martin Baturina in the 36th minute.
Kane restored England's lead in the 42nd minute with a header from a Declan Rice corner, a goal that tied him with Gary Lineker's England record of 10 World Cup goals. Croatia answered again before the break, ESPN reported, when Petar Musa volleyed home a well-worked move set up by Ivan Perisic.
Jude Bellingham put England back in front just two minutes into the second half, driving in from the right wing to beat Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic. Substitute Marcus Rashford sealed the 4-2 result in the 85th minute, capping a wild opener that left both sides with work still to do in Group L.
Mid-game pep talk
Tuchel had work to do at halftime with the score tied 2-2. Per the Guardian, Kane said his coach delivered a rousing speech that helped spark England's response after the break.
“He told us to take the shackles off, calm down and let’s go,” Kane said, recalling Tuchel’s halftime message.
More than a goalscorer
Kane's value to England goes beyond the scoresheet, which traders appear to be pricing in across the markets.
Sky Sports noted that Kane also put in defensive work against Croatia, including a late block on a Josko Gvardiol header that preserved England's two-goal cushion in stoppage time.
Traders appear to be backing Kane's ability to drive England's attack as both a scorer and a leader. The team still has a long road ahead in the tournament, but the opening win reinforced why markets continue to view Kane as one of its most influential players heading into Tuesday's match against Ghana.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
