Illinois voters are headed to the polls today to cast their ballots for the Senate primary to replace outgoing Sen. Dick Durbin. The list of candidates on either side of the aisle may be long, but traders have coalesced around a few specific candidates.
Not trading advice. For informational purposes only.
The Democratic Senate candidates
State Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi leads on the Illinois Democratic Senate primary market at 61%. Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton sits at 41%.
The New York Times reports that Krishnamoorthi’s campaign brought in just over $30 million in donations on top of the $19 million he transferred in from his last campaign. He’s already spent around $29 million in television and digital ads for his Senate primary campaign.
Republican Senate candidates
Meanwhile, traders have priced in a heavy favorite in the Illinois Republican Senate primary.
Former Illinois Republican Party chairman Don Tracy currently has a 97% chance of winning the nomination for the GOP. Attorney Jeannie Evans trails far behind Tracy at 9%. The five remaining candidates are each priced at less than 1%.
Spending on the Illinois Republican primary is much lighter compared to the Democratic race. NPR Illinois reports that Tracy only raised around $2.1 million for his campaign, and Evans raised just over $500,000 in donations.
Which party will win?
Traders are also pricing in a clear favorite for November’s general election.
The Democratic Party’s chances of winning are priced at 97%, while the Republican Party has only a 3%.
The takeaway
Kalshi markets now predict:
Follow Danny Gallagher on Instagram: @writerdannygallagher
Follow Kalshi on X: @Kalshi
This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.