2026 will likely mark a year of great change in the political delegation of Illinois.
First, longtime Democratic Senate Whip Dick Durbin, the No. 2 in Senate Democratic leadership after Chuck Schumer, announced his retirement last year. Two U.S. Representatives, Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly, announced their candidacies for his seat, thus opening up their districts as well.
Additionally, three additional House Democrats – Jan Schakowsky, Danny Davis, and Chuy Garcia – from the Chicago metro also announced their retirements from Congress, creating an additional three open House seats (although Garcia’s last-minute dropping-out maneuver in IL-04 ensured his chief of staff would be the only Democratic candidate, a move for which he was reprimanded in the House).
Seeing an open Senate seat and four open House seats at the same time is a once-in-a-generation event. Not surprisingly, crowded fields of Democrats have packed into the primaries for these deep blue districts. It’s important to note that unlike states like Texas, Illinois has no runoff requirements. This means that the candidate who receives the most votes on Tuesday will advance to the general election, regardless of whether that vote share is over 50% or not. With that in mind, here are some of the most notable elections and markets to watch for Tuesday.
Soon after Durbin announced his retirement, Krishnamoorthi leapt into the race and built a lead early by spending from his $30M war chest. His most formidable competitor is Illinois’ current lieutenant governor Juliana Stratton, who has the backing of Governor J.B. Pritzker and Senator Tammy Duckworth.
During the course of the campaign, Stratton has tried to make up ground in name recognition while also hitting Krishnamoorthi on his past votes to fund ICE and for accepting donations from an executive at Palantir. Krishnamoorthi has responded by donating the value of the Palantir contributions and framing his ICE votes as part of a broader measure to combat antisemitism. On the issue of immigration, which gained renewed prominence after ICE conducted operations in Chicago, the progressive Stratton has called for abolishing ICE, while Krishnamoorthi has expressed support for abolishing “Trump’s ICE.”
Campaign finance has also been a recurring issue on the campaign trail. Stratton has been boosted by spending from PACs associated with the billionaire Pritzkers, but has still been outspent by Krishnamoorthi, who is backed by PACs aligned with the cryptocurrency industry. Questions of who is funding whom, who accepts PAC funds, and Krishnamoorthi’s dominant fundraising prowess have dogged the leading candidates in the race.
Meanwhile, Rep. Robin Kelly, the third major candidate in the election, has focused her campaign on addressing healthcare inequalities and affordability challenges, especially in the realm of child care and housing. Earlier in 2026, she also introduced articles of impeachment against Kristi Noem.
Markets suggest this election remains anyone’s game heading into next Tuesday. Krishnamoorthi currently leads the market with a 56% chance to be the Democratic nominee, a number that has significantly tightened since the start of the year, with Stratton close behind at 44%. Kelly lags the two frontrunners with only a 2% chance of winning. It’s important to note that Illinois, unlike Texas, does not have runoff requirements — a candidate only needs a plurality of the vote to win. This means that come Tuesday night, we will most likely know who is carrying the Democratic banner in November, and who will be best positioned to be the next U.S. Senator from Illinois.
Jan Schakowsky’s retirement has opened up this northern Chicago district for the first time since 1999, spawning a crowded 15-candidate Democratic primary to succeed her. According to the markets, leading the race is Daniel Biss, the current mayor of Evanston (a city north of Chicago that is the home of Northwestern University). A progressive, Biss has been endorsed by Illinois Senator Tammy Duckworth, Senator Elizabeth Warren, and outgoing Rep. Jan Schakowsky, among various other national and local leaders.
But what really propelled the IL-09 primary into the national spotlight is the candidacy of Kat Abughazaleh, who is close behind Biss in both polls and markets. Abughazaleh is a Gen-Z content creator and social media influencer who was among six protestors arrested during a protest outside of an ICE facility last September, charges she calls a “political prosecution.” Being part of the “Broadview Six” has turbocharged her national prominence (and fundraising) and propelled her – and her progressive agenda – to the front of the pack.
The third leading candidate is state senator Laura Fine, who has made healthcare and health insurance policy (including Medicare for All, lowering drug prices, and protecting abortion rights) central to her campaign. However, her campaign has also received attention for accepting donations from pro-Israel lobbying group AIPAC, which is also running ads to support her bid.
Longtime incumbent Danny Davis has represented Illinois’ seventh congressional district since 1997, which now includes much of western Chicago and the downtown Loop. The candidates leading the Democratic field are Melissa Conyears-Ervin, a former state representative and Chicago’s city treasurer, La Shawn Ford, a state representative endorsed by Davis, and Jason Friedman, a wealthy real estate developer who built up the River North neighborhood and previously worked in the Clinton administration.
After a decade in the House, Raja Krishnamoorthi’s Senate run opens up this district centered on the western suburbs of Chicago. Although the open seat attracted a crowd of eight candidates, the market sees two clear leaders: the first is former U.S. Representative Melissa Bean, who represented a prior iteration of IL-08 from 2005 to 2011. Bean’s 0.2% loss to Joe Walsh in 2010 made IL-08 the closest House race of that cycle. Her biggest competition appears to be tech entrepreneur Juniad Ahmed, a progressive who’s been endorsed by both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Congresswoman Robin Kelly is the other representative who decided to run for Senate rather than seek reelection. Ten Democratic candidates are seeking to replace her in this district that encompasses the southeastern portions of Chicago and Cook County before sprawling out into the suburbs and rural towns south of the city. Leading the markets is Donna Miller, a Cook County commissioner with substantial local support. Her most notable opponent is Jesse Jackson Jr., the son of the late reverend Jesse Jackson. Jackson Jr. actually represented IL-02 in Congress before Kelly, but stepped down in 2012 and pleaded guilty to campaign finance violations in 2013, for which he spent 18 months in prison. Now, Jackson Jr. is seeking to reclaim his old seat. Rounding out the top 3 candidates is Robert Peters, a state senator who has the backing of Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and numerous progressive groups.
Ultimately, in a state as blue as Illinois (and districts even bluer than the state), whoever emerges victorious from these Democratic primaries will, in all likelihood, be favorites to win the general election. That means these primaries on Tuesday will ultimately go a long way towards determining the composition – and ideological makeup – of the Congressional delegation from Illinois.
The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author, who works for Kalshi and cannot trade on the platform. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.