The James Bond casting market got a major shake-up on Nov. 6, 2026, when Deadline announced Robert Pattinson and Nicholas Hoult had screen tested for the role. They join Callum Turner, Jack Lowden, and Josh O’Connor as the 007 frontrunners.
Following the report, Pattinson’s odds in the Kalshi market shot up, and he now sits at 29%, while traders believe Hoult is more of a long shot at 7%. Lowden leads the market at 31% odds.
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Though no formal short lists or finalists have been named by Amazon MGM Studios, Kalshi traders believe the competition has narrowed to Lowden, Pattinson, and Turner with an announcement imminent.
Jack Lowden
Lowden has led the market for stretches of the race, and he is currently the slight favorite at 31% odds.
His Slow Horses co-star Gary Oldman endorsed the idea of Lowden stepping into the iconic role in the early stages of the casting race. At the end of October 2026, Lowden responded in an interview with British GQ where he called Oldman’s comments “particularly lovely, coming from someone like him.” “It’s all very flattering. It’s nice to be mentioned – for any role – and I’m just not really going to add to the noise,” Lowden added.
Lowden’s schedule is believed to be open enough to slot a large Bond production into 2027. He will star in the forthcoming adaptation of Pride and Prejudice slated for release in December 2026, and his involvement in Slow Horses is up in the air after the sixth season ended on a cliffhanger about his character’s fate.
Robert Pattinson
The late-breaking confirmation of Pattinson’s screen test moved him into a tie for second place in the Kalshi market at 29% odds.
But despite some fan sites like Den of Geek deeming him “the perfect Gen Z Bond,” Pattinson has one major detail working against him: He is already the face of a huge franchise in The Batman, and previous stewards of James Bond have preferred a lesser-known actor for the role.
One theory floating on the internet is that Pattinson and Hoult were not screen testing for Bond at all, but rather for a villain role instead. A Reddit user pointed out that “both have been killing it in their villain era lately” while another referenced Pattinson’s antagonistic role in The Odyssey earlier in 2026 as proof of “how great a villain he can be.”
Pattinson will also appear in the third installment of the Dune franchise in December 2026 (again as a villain), which is helmed by future Bond director Denis Villeneuve. Whether that will work for or against his casting remains to be seen.
Callum Turner
Turner recently added a former Bond’s endorsement to his resume, which briefly catapulted him to the market’s leader at the end of October 2026. “Callum is someone I’ve worked with, and he’s so strong,” Pierce Brosnan told Vanity Fair about his former co-star from the film The Only Living Boy in New York. While he added that “all the men who are on the list now are actors I admire” and “they all have a voice and a physique, and a presence on film,” Turner is the only one who got a direct shoutout from Brosnan.
An Esquire article also read between the lines in Turner’s current schedule and past filmography to suggest he may have already won the part. The magazine notes that Turner does not have many already-announced projects lined up for 2027, and that he recently stepped down as director from his and wife Dua Lipa’s production company Twentytwo Films Ltd., meaning he could be clearing space in his schedule for a demanding Bond production. His history in the independent film space also mirrors Daniel Craig’s pre-Bond career and could indicate he has the right experience to don the tux.
Still, with the excitement around Pattinson, Turner has slipped to 29%, tied with Pattinson for second place.
Other contenders
Josh O’Connor and Nicholas Hoult have also reportedly screen tested for the role, but their names have never been at the forefront of the race.
O’Connor’s odds climbed from 9% to as high as 24% in recent days before settling at 18%. Men’s Health called him the right choice for the role as a star who would “bring a new energy and a new brand of modern masculinity to the world’s most famous spy.”
Hoult’s odds are in fifth at 7% despite the screen test announcement. Similar to Pattinson, fans online see him working better as a Bond villain rather than Bond himself.
Amazon MGM Studios is expected to make an announcement soon, though no exact date has been announced.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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