John Thune's odds to become next Senate minority leader drop to 64%

After the Republicans’ loss in the midterm elections, members of the party have urged current Majority Leader John Thune to postpone internal leadership elections scheduled for Nov. 10.

Thune had a 91% chance to remain the party’s leader for the 120th Congress, but his odds have dropped 27 percentage points in the past 24 hours to 64%, according to Kalshi’s event contract on who will be the next Senate minority leader.

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Senate Budget Committee Chair Ron Johnson’s chances climbed to an all-time high of 27% on Nov. 9 before settling at 14%, second place behind Thune. Meanwhile, Sen. Tom Cotton, chair of the Senate Republican Conference, is third with a 9% chance, up from 3% a day earlier.

Johnson sent a letter on Nov. 9 to Cotton’s office calling for a delay. “The letter was also signed by Sens. Rick Scott (R-Fla.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), John Kennedy (R-La.), and Ted Budd (R-N.C.), giving him enough signatures to trigger a Senate GOP conference meeting to discuss the matter,” Bloomberg reported.

Sen. Jim Banks said in a statement on X, “We need to elect Republican leadership in the Senate, but tomorrow is too soon.” Banks wants to have a discussion about the party’s shortcomings, values, and plan to deliver for working families. “Let’s have that discussion first. Then we can choose the leaders who will carry out the agenda we agree on,” Banks added.

On Nov. 8, Sen. Dave McCormick also said Nov. 10 is too soon to decide leadership positions. “A week ago, we had the worst election results in decades. We need a discussion about what went wrong, how we fix it, what we stand for, and how our agenda must focus on the concerns of the American people,” McCormick said in a statement on X.

“As I’ve shared with Leader Thune, I don’t believe we should move to leadership elections until we have digested and debated the lessons of the midterms and how to move forward,” McCormick continued. “I know it’s been the practice to go straight to leadership elections in recent years, but we should not rush it.”

Across the aisle, Sen. Chuck Schumer has an 88% chance to be the Senate majority leader for the 120th Congress, albeit a two-percentage-point drop in the last 24 hours. Sen. Chris Van Hollen’s odds have risen to 13% from 8% in the same period, per Kalshi’s market on the next Senate majority leader.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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