White House exit odds: Susie Wiles is out, but who else will leave the Trump administration?

Now that White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles is leaving her position, Kalshi traders are trying to predict who will be the next to leave the Trump administration.

Kalshi's market for Trump administration departures this year shows Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at 45%, followed by White House Counsel Will Scharf at 41%. Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter is at 36% and Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward is at 32%.

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Wiles announced on social media on Nov. 6 that she would be leaving her role in the White House.

The New York Times reported that President Donald Trump will appoint Stephen Miller to replace Wiles as White House chief of staff.

The Times’ Maggie Haberman reported that Miller made his pitch for the job by telling President Trump he “needed to wind down the Iran war, which the president’s core supporters viewed as a betrayal.”

Haberman characterized Miller's appointment as a sign that Trump intends to maintain his policy agenda despite Republicans' losses in the Nov. 3 midterm elections.

“One of the disconnects right now is that the Republican midterm losses were a decisive rebuke of the president and his actions in office,” Haberman wrote. “But Trump has two years left of the term, and putting in Miller…is doubling down on Trump’s agenda, not switching course.”

The increased attention to McCotter and Woodward may reflect a broader wave of departures from the Justice Department.

Politico reported that John Eisenberg, the assistant attorney general in charge of national security, and federal prosecutor Jason Quiñones both resigned from their positions on Nov. 6. Harmeet Dhillon, who overhauled the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division, and U.S. attorney Joe diGenova resigned on Nov. 5.

The reason for the resignations remains unclear, but Reuters noted, “It is not unusual for senior US officials to leave the government following a midterm election, especially one that delivers a sharp setback to the party in power.”

Hegseth was one of the first names that started to surface as a Trump administration official who President Trump was considering firing.

Kalshi's Hegseth departure market puts the chance that he will resign or be removed from office by year's end at 44%.

Hegseth and the White House denied reports that Trump was considering his dismissal. The Washington Post reported that Hegseth also posted a five-minute video on social media disputing reports that Trump was considering firing him.

There are efforts in Congress to impeach Hegseth. Forbes reported that Rep. Thomas Massie announced on his X account that he plans to file articles of impeachment when the House reconvenes on Nov. 9.

“There is one contingency in which I won’t reintroduce the articles of impeachment: Hegseth resigns,” Massie wrote on X.

ABC News reported on Nov. 9 that Massie could reintroduce the resolution as soon as that day, with a House vote required within two legislative days.

Kalshi markets now predict:

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