Japan takes on Sweden today in Dallas in a Group F finale that could decide who tops the table and who heads home. The Samurai Blue need only a point to secure a top-two finish, while Sweden, reeling from a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of the Netherlands, must win outright to keep their tournament alive.
Kalshi traders give Japan a 44% chance to win today's match, with Sweden at 30% and a tie at 29%.
For informational purposes only. Not trading advice. See full disclaimer below. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
What's at stake
Japan and the Netherlands sit level atop Group F on four points apiece, with the Dutch holding the top spot on the goals-scored tiebreaker, seven to six. According to ESPN, a draw is enough to send Japan through in the top two, though Japan coach Hajime Moriyasu has made clear his side isn't playing for a point.
"Sweden are a very strong side," Moriyasu said, ahead of the match. He added that he hoped Japan's defenders would relish the challenge of facing Sweden's attacking duo.
Sweden has no such cushion. A loss eliminates Graham Potter's side outright, while a win keeps the door open for a top-two finish if results elsewhere fall their way. The two sides will be aware that the Netherlands face an already-eliminated Tunisia in Kansas City at the same kickoff time, a match Ronald Koeman's side are favored to win.
Japan's tournament so far
Japan opened with a dramatic 2-2 draw against the Netherlands, twice coming from behind before Daichi Kamada's stoppage-time deflection off a Koki Ogawa header salvaged a point. The Samurai Blue followed that up with a statement 4-0 win over Tunisia, with Ayase Ueda scoring twice and Kamada and Junya Ito each adding one.
Japan coach Moriyasu credited his team's resilience after the Netherlands draw. "While earning only a point is a little disappointing, we managed to get a result through our collective effort," he told FIFA.com.
Sweden's tournament so far
Sweden's campaign has swung wildly between extremes. The Scandinavians opened with a 5-1 win over Tunisia, then suffered the exact same scoreline in reverse against the Netherlands, becoming the first side in World Cup history to win an opener by four-plus goals before losing the next match by the same margin.
Potter struck a philosophical tone after the loss. "Maybe it was an experience we needed to go through," per ESPN. Sweden will lean on the attacking pedigree of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres to find a way through a Japan defense that Moriyasu insists is built to handle exactly that kind of test.
Group F winner market
The Group F winner market has the Netherlands as a heavy 83% favorite to top the group, with Japan given a 16% shot. The wide gap reflects the Dutch side's favorable matchup against Tunisia, who have nothing left to play for, while Japan still has to get past a wounded but dangerous Sweden side.
The bigger picture
Neither Japan nor Sweden figures prominently in the World Cup winner market, where France leads at 19.9% ahead of Argentina at 15.8% and Spain at 13.4%. Japan sits at just 1.8%, while Sweden has all but been priced out at 0.2%, a reflection of how unlikely traders see either side's path to the final.
Kalshi markets now predict:
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This article may contain content generated with the assistance of artificial intelligence. It is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment, trading, financial, or legal advice. Any opinions or market commentary are not recommendations. Trading involves risk and you should carefully evaluate your financial situation and consult a qualified advisor before making any trading decisions. Kalshi is not affiliated with FIFA or the 2026 World Cup.
