Speculation surrounding a potential Jaylen Brown trade has intensified, but Kalshi traders still believe he's most likely to stay with Boston or retire, but with less certainty than before.
The market for Jaylen Brown's next team shows traders think he'll stay with Boston or retire at a price of 32%. Cleveland has climbed into second at 18%, followed by Minnesota at 13%.
However, just two days ago, Brown's odds of staying in Boston were over 57%, which indicated traders are increasingly uncertain on where he will land.
Staying with Boston or retiring
There's been a ton of talk about where Brown will end up after Boston's offer for Giannis Antetokounmpo, reportedly built around Brown himself, lost out to Miami's package earlier this week. The Athletic's Jay King reported that Boston's president of basketball operations has met with Brown "multiple times" to stay ahead of the rumors, though Stevens hasn't said what was discussed.
With Antetokounmpo no longer available, it remains unclear whether Boston will revisit any discussions involving Brown. That uncertainty may explain why traders still view the Celtics as his most likely destination.
Going to Cleveland
Cleveland has also entered those trade talks since losing out on Antetokounmpo to Miami, with Boston reportedly looking at Cavaliers center Evan Mobley as a target.
Sports Illustrated's Chris Mannix said on NBC Sports Boston that Mobley is the name connected to the Celtics most often since the Giannis deal fell apart. "The name that I have been hearing connected to the Celtics most often over the last 24 hours... is Evan Mobley in Cleveland," Mannix said.
Mannix also cautioned that any deal would be complicated, since Cleveland is a second-apron team that can't easily aggregate contracts for salary matching. Cleveland insider Brian Windhorst has since pushed back on the idea, telling ESPN Cleveland he doesn't think the Cavaliers are looking to move Mobley right now.
Trading with Minnesota
Minnesota has emerged as one of the teams most frequently linked to Brown, though traders have cooled on the idea in recent trading.
Sports Illustrated's Will Ragatz says even though Brown is one of the top shooting guards in the league, "Boston is hunting a big man and would be willing to trade Brown to land one. [Minnesota], who are always looking to add talent around [Anthony] Edwards, happen to have a veteran center who has won four defensive player of the year awards."
Ragatz also floated Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo, Terrence Shannon Jr., and a 2033 first-round pick as the kind of package Minnesota could offer for Brown.
Despite continued speculation linking Brown to several contenders, traders still see Boston, or retirement, as his most likely outcome. Whether that changes could depend on how aggressively teams pursue deals later in the offseason.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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