Kalshi traders are growing less confident in Mike Johnson's hold on the speakership.
The odds of Johnson leaving the speakership before July are now priced at 16%, up 3 percentage points, while odds of an exit before Nov. 3 climbed 12 percentage points to 33%.
A house divided
The market movement comes as recent media reports suggest several GOP leaders on Capitol Hill are frustrated with Johnson’s handling of major legislation, including the recent Homeland Security funding bill that passed without funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement.
Politico talked with several key GOP leaders and sources with knowledge of the situation about Johnson’s leadership. Some said they dislike the way Johnson has a “habit of making last-minute, often contradictory promises to keep his tiny majority functioning.”
This past week in particular has been a difficult one for Republicans in the House and their leader. Johnson not only had to contend with the contentious Homeland Security bill but also “a government spy power extension and a long-awaited farm bill” that could have an effect on the midterms.
As Rep. Max Miller of Ohio put it: “I think this guy has divided us with a smile.”
Behind closed doors
The Politico story cited several sources who witnessed a verbal brawl between Republican leaders and the House Speaker in “closed-door meetings.”
One of the issues was an ethanol fuel bill that is already creating divisions in his party. Rep. Ann Wagner yelled “Bulls---” at the speaker when Johnson went back on an agreement in order to pass the farm funding bill.
However, GOP leaders and Johnson denied that there is any in-fighting going on with the Republican conference.
“Everybody’s very happy with their work,” Johnson told Politico. “It’s all smiles.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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