Unlike the volatile market surrounding LeBron James, Kalshi traders see little uncertainty about Stephen Curry's future.
Kalshi's next-team market gives Curry a 93% chance of either remaining with the Warriors or retiring, compared to a 3% chance he’ll end up with the Miami Heat.
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What’s causing the rumors?
Golden State's quiet offseason and Curry's expiring contract have fueled speculation about his future, even though recent reporting suggests both sides remain interested in an extension. Both seem to be fueling rumors that Curry might be looking for a new team for his remaining years as an NBA player.
But so far, they remain only rumors. In fact, ESPN’s Shams Charania told Stephen A. Smith on his SiriusXM show that he expects Curry and the Warriors to resume contract extension talks “when he’s eligible.”
“I believe it’s in late August that they’re going to discuss an extension, whether it’s a one-year or two-year extension that he’s eligible for,” Charania said. “They’re going to give him one if he wants one. To my knowledge, I think there’s going to be a desire on his part, too. So there’s mutual interest there.”
Green's return has also fueled discussion about Curry's remaining championship window.
ESPN's Anthony Slater reported that the Warriors remain committed to keeping Curry but have yet to build a roster viewed as a championship contender.
“There remains mutual interest in a Curry extension when he’s eligible in late August, league sources said, but nearly the rest of the roster is vulnerable in the next calendar year,” Slater wrote. “In the interim, this profiles as an offseason that’ll be categorized as boring and stagnant. The Warriors appear to be floating into another season of non-contention as Curry approaches his 39th birthday after missing 39 games last season.”
Golden State's offseason
It seems Golden State has been focused solely on maintaining its roster with big deals for heavy hitters who already play for the Warriors like Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford and Green. In the process, they also do not seem to be mounting a big run for the Finals trophy next season.
CBS Sports' Brad Botkin wrote that in focusing on maintaining their current roster and failing to go after new faces for the team's upcoming season, they are not doing any favors for Curry and his remaining seasons.
“If we’re being honest, all signs indicate the Warriors are already counting next season as a wash,” Botkin wrote. “It’s next summer they’re worried about, when they are slated to have more cap space than any other team in the league with just $50 million currently scheduled on their books.”
Botkin argued that prioritizing future cap flexibility could come at the expense of maximizing Curry's remaining championship window.
“Curry is what’s real,” Botkin wrote. “All this time, the Warriors thought they were smarter than everyone else when, in fact, they just had Curry. And the fact is, they are willingly, even actively marginalizing the last prime years of his career when they should be doing everything they can, at least within, to maximize them.”
The takeaway:
Kalshi traders now predict
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