Joshua vs. Paul: markets point to one-sided matchup in Miami

Tonight, Jake Paul and Anthony Joshua will face off at the Kaseya Center in Miami, FL, and Kalshi’s traders are showing strong faith in Joshua, pricing his chances of victory at 86%.

Livestreaming on Netflix, “Jake vs. Joshua: Judgement Day” (as it is being billed by Paul’s Most Valuable Promotions) will be Joshua’s first professional fight in nearly 15 months. Regardless, Joshua will be operating with a significant advantage in terms of size and experience.

Paul (12-1, 7 KO), a 28-year-old American, is back in the ring after defeating Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. in Anaheim this past summer. Despite a non-traditional rise in the sport, he has displayed top-end punching power along with dedication. He has not lost since February of 2023 (SD-Tommy Fury).

While Paul’s list of previous opponents is saturated with non-boxers and fighters past their prime, “The Problem Child” will look to silence his toughest critics when he takes on the towering Joshua. For reference, Paul, a cruiserweight, stands at 6-foot-1 with a reach of 76 inches. That will leave him on the tale of the tape’s short side.

As of Thursday, Kalshi’s markets were extremely bearish on Paul, with just a 14% chance of victory, down from a high of 24.4%, which occurred on November 21. 

Paul has developed an affinity for knockout finishes, and presently boasts a 58.3% professional KO rate. In the method-of-victory market for Jake vs. Joshua, Paul is priced at 13¢ to defeat Joshua by knockout, TKO or disqualification. That is only slightly higher than Paul to win by decision, which yields a 12% possibility on Kalshi.

Joshua (28-4, 25 KO), standing at 6-foot-6 with a reach of 82 inches, is likely to be Paul’s toughest matchup to date. As a two-time heavyweight champion, Joshua has unified the world heavyweight belts on two separate occasions (from 2017 to 2019, and again in 2019 to 2021).

Fighting out of London, the 36-year-old Joshua has over 30 pro bouts under his belt, which is more than double when compared to his upcoming opponent. However, he has not fought since being knocked out by Daniel Dubois in September of 2024.

Joshua is contractually not allowed to weigh above 245 pounds for his scrap with Paul, and each boxer will lace up with 10-ounce gloves.

With this fight scheduled for eight rounds, Joshua is currently trading at 67¢ to win by KO/TKO/DQ in the method of victory category. That is down from 79¢ yesterday.

But with the current odds, no matter which way you slice it, if Joshua falls to Paul on Friday, it will be viewed as a historic upset.

In his most recent tilt against Chavez, Paul emerged to “Lean like a Cholo” by Down AKA Kilo.

As for which song Paul will use for his walkout tonight (scheduled for approx. 10:30 p.m. ET), Kalshi traders price “Something Different” by Why Don’t We at 38%, and Paul’s own song, “23,” at 18%. “In the Air Tonight” by Phil Collins (9%) and “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” by Brenda Lee (10%) are also near the top of the market.

Meanwhile, traders price “Ambition” by Maulo as the most likely walkout song for Joshua, with a 17% chance. “Shut Up” by Stormzy is the second-most likely at 13%, followed by Kendrick Lamar’s “DNA” at 11%.

The takeaway

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