With less than 30 days until the general election, Kalshi, a financial exchange regulated by the CFTC, launched three new transparency features for its midterm election markets. These new features will help visitors better understand what Kalshi market prices signal about an upcoming race and how Kalshi's markets can be used as reliable forecasting tools.
While prediction markets have been used to track past elections, 2026 marks the first midterms in which they’ve truly gone mainstream. Kalshi is powering live 2026 midterm election markets for every Senate, House and Governor race across the country, and has become one of the leading indicators of where elections are headed. Election trading volume is higher in 2026 than 2024–a presidential election year–and election trading has grown six times faster than football volume in 2026, compared to 2025. Between its app and website, Kalshi expects to be one of the most visited platforms this election season, with voters, reporters, businesses, investors, and even campaigns all checking the markets to forecast results.
Most visitors never place a trade: three in four Kalshi users watch the markets only to gather information, and on midterm markets specifically, viewers outnumber traders five to one.
These three new transparency features make election market prices easier to understand and put in context:
Brier scores. Each election market will show a Brier score, a measure of forecast accuracy that compares the market’s predicted probabilities with actual outcomes. Scores are calculated from millions of historical Kalshi data points, weighted by each market’s volume and how far it is from resolution. Lower scores mean more accurate forecasts.
Low-volume tags. Kalshi markets follow the wisdom of the crowd, meaning the more trading volume, the more accurate the forecast. New labels will show each market’s total trading volume, making lower-volume markets easy to spot. Even markets under $10,000 in volume score on par with top human forecasters.
Activity feeds. Each market will show individual trades in real time as they happen. These feeds are already displayed on Kalshi, but they are positioned at the bottom of market pages. Moving them to a more prominent place will help casual visitors watch how the probabilities are created and how Kalshi markets move, trade by trade.
“People are turning to prediction markets because they offer something traditional forecasts can’t: a bottom-up signal built from the collective judgment of everyone participating,” said Tarek Mansour, CEO and co-founder of Kalshi. “Through Kalshi markets, millions of people compete on an open exchange that incentivizes participants to think rationally, conduct research, and put conviction behind well-informed opinions. The result is trustworthy, accurate information, and there is no topic more critical for accurate information than elections.”
Additional information on Kalshi’s midterm markets include:
Information Source: As part of Kalshi's emerging role in midterm forecasting, the company has partnered with the Associated Press to showcase its live vote counts and race calls alongside Kalshi's market forecasts. This fall, Kalshi data will also help inform media coverage on CBS News, which will feature Kalshi markets alongside its own polling in its midterm reporting, and 270toWin, which will show Kalshi forecasts alongside live election results.
Midterms Hub: The new transparency tools build on Kalshi's Midterms Hub, which was launched this summer as a one-stop shop for following state and federal races. The Hub presents live market odds for Senate, House, and governor races together with VoteHub polling averages, FEC fundraising data, past presidential results, and campaign news, so visitors get a full picture of every race in one place.
How Markets Settle: Because Kalshi does not call elections, election markets will only settle once at least four of eight major news organizations, including the AP, call a race, with none disagreeing. If a race goes to a recount or faces a legal challenge, the market will stay open until the winner is sworn in.
Protecting Market Integrity: Kalshi bans anyone who can influence an election outcome from trading on it, a stricter standard than federal insider trading law. That ban covers candidates, members of Congress and all House and Senate staff, campaign staff and vendors, party employees, pollsters, election officials and poll workers, and media decision desks.
To enforce that ban, every account requires identity verification, so Kalshi can screen out insiders before they trade. Kalshi’s surveillance also scans every trade for suspicious timing and coordinated activity, and any red flag triggers an account freeze and an investigation. This year, Kalshi has fined and suspended four congressional candidates for trading on their own races.
Learn more about Kalshi’s market integrity policies: https://kalshi.com/policy-center/market-integrity
