Kendrick Lamar priced as Record of the Year favorite

The 68th annual Grammy Awards are nearly here. In just a few hours, we’ll see some of the premier names gather at Crypto.com Arena in downtown Los Angeles.

Most public interest is focused on the four major Grammy Awards: Song of the Year, Best New Artist, Album of the Year and Record of the Year.

As for the latter, there are eight widely popularized nominations. But according to Kalshi’s traders, “luther” by Kendrick Lamar and SZA is the ROTY favorite.

The subsequent seven Grammy nominees for 2025 Record of the Year are “DtMF” by Bad Bunny, “WILDFLOWER” by Billie Eilish, “The Subway” by Chappell Roan, “Anxiety” by Doechii, “Abracadabra” by Lady Gaga, “APT.” by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars, and “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter.

Let’s take a deeper look at what Kalshi’s markets are saying for the upcoming Grammy Awards.

^{This is an opinion and not financial advice. The author cannot trade on Kalshi.}

“luther” by Kendrick Lamar and SZA (prod. Sounwave, Jack Antonoff, Scott Bridgeway, Kamasi Washington, M-Tech and roselilah) is currently priced at 62¢ to win the Grammy for Record of the Year. If this stands, it would be KDot’s second-consecutive win in this category, as “Not Like Us” earned the ROTY award last year. Kendrick has previously won 22 Grammy Awards, while SZA has five.

As the third single released from Lamar’s GNX (which is nominated for Album of the Year), "luther" spent 13 straight weeks atop Billboard’s charts. Notably, the track samples Luther Vandross’ and Cheryl Lynn’s rendition of “If This World Were Mine.”

Behind “luther,” the insatiably catchy “APT.” by ROSÉ and Bruno Mars (prod. Mars, Cirkut, Omar Fedi and Rogét Lutfi Chahayed) boasts a 16% chance on Kalshi of winning Record of the Year. It is the marquee single from ROSÉ’s debut studio album, Rosie.

With the expansive reach of its respective artists, “APT.” has become incredibly popular on an international scale. Expect to hear the melodious song on stage, as Kalshi’s traders are indicating a 99% chance that Bruno Mars and ROSÉ will perform at the 68th Grammy Awards.

“Abracadabra” by Lady Gaga (prod. Gaga, Andrew Watt and Cirkut) once displayed a 23% price tag (Nov. 13) in this market, but it fell to as low as nine cents on Friday. The second single from Gaga’s Mayhem is now listed with a 15% likelihood of winning the Grammy for ROTY.

The remaining five nominated tracks are all trading at 10% or less, with Bad Bunny’s “DtMF” priced at 10¢. Regardless, his sixth studio album, DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS, is the market favorite for Album of the Year.

(Click here to trade on Bad Bunny’s opening song at the pro football championship)

“WILDFLOWER” by Billie Eilish (5%), “Manchild” by Sabrina Carpenter (3%), “The Subway” by Chappell Roan (1%), and “Anxiety” by Doechii (1%) are all available for trade at five cents or under. 

Kendrick Lamar, SZA, Sounwave, Jack Antonoff, Scott Bridgeway, Kamasi Washington, M-Tech and roselilah are strong favorites here to win Record of the Year for their combined efforts on “luther.” The GNX single is pleasing from both a critical and listening perspective, bringing pronounced percussion and complementary vocal harmonies.

In that same vein, don’t be surprised if ROSÉ, Bruno Mars, Cirkut, Omar Fedi and Rogét Lutfi Chahayed have their names called for “APT.” The track is seemingly everywhere.

Cirkut is also nominated with Lady Gaga for his production work on “Abracadabra,” which shows as the third-favorite on Kalshi to win ROTY.

The 68th annual Grammy Awards in Los Angeles will be televised by CBS/Paramount+ tonight at 8 p.m. ET.

Kalshi markets now forecast:

Grammy for Record of the Year:

(And the Grammy Award for Best New Artist goes to …)

Follow Gabriel Santiago on Instagram: @ByGabrielSantiago
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^{The opinions and perspectives presented in this article belong solely to the author. This is not financial advice. Trading on Kalshi involves risk and may not be appropriate for all. Members risk losing their cost to enter any transaction, including fees. You should carefully consider whether trading on Kalshi is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience and financial resources. Any trading decisions you make are solely your responsibility and at your own risk. Information is provided for convenience only on an "AS IS" basis. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Kalshi is subject to U.S. regulatory oversight by the CFTC.}