Odds of LeBron returning to Cleveland more than double as free agency speculation swirls

Rumors that LeBron James could return to Cleveland have pushed traders to more than double the odds of a homecoming over the past week.

The market for James' next team shows the price on Cleveland climbing from 10% on June 21 to as high as the high-20s by June 26, before settling at 22% as of June 28. Over the same stretch, the chance he stays in Los Angeles or retires fell from 70% to 50%. James going to Miami now carries a price of 16%, while Golden State sits at 14%.

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The speculation has grown louder as talks between James and his current team have reportedly stalled.

Yahoo Sports reported that Los Angeles is weighing its options now that the team has roughly $50 million in cap space to work with.

ESPN’s Shams Charania said, “There was a check-in call made, to my understanding, early in free agency once teams were able to start negotiating with their own free agents after the end of the NBA Finals. Since then though there hasn’t been much communication, from my understanding, between [Los Angeles] and LeBron James’ side. And certainly not an offer yet.”

So far, rumors seem to be driving the market’s prediction that LeBron’s free-agency status will take him back to Cleveland for his final chapter in pro-basketball. One of those rumors has attracted attention because of the person who shared it.

Cleveland.com's Chris Pugh writes that local fitness trainer Joshua Teplitz posted on his X page, “Supposedly, LeBron IS coming back for a third and final stint.”

It may sound innocuous and just a post from a local fan who hopes their most famous pro-basketball player returns to their hometown for one more run on the court. However, Teplitz accurately predicted that James would return to Cleveland in 2014. So the post is getting a lot of viral attention.

Some sports media members aren’t so sure Cleveland will be able to make a deal to bring James back to his home state’s pro-basketball team.

ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on The Pat McAfee Show that he thinks it's unlikely James will go back to Cleveland because of salary restrictions since they “can only offer LeBron $4 million bucks.”

“One of the things I’ve learned about LeBron is you never count his money and never spend his money,” Windhorst added. “So, making assumptions that LeBron would take a lot less money, I see people making that assumption, and I just don’t think it’s smart.”

Windhorst also noted if Cleveland wanted to make that happen, they would have to give up a star player to Los Angeles like Jarrett Allen.

“I think if [Cleveland was] willing to do that, they could have LeBron,” Windhorst added. “Obviously, LeBron would have to want to with [Cleveland]. But your pathway to pay LeBron the money is to trade Jarrett Allen for him. The Lakers would kill for Jarrett Allen. Kill for him! They would do that deal in 17 tenths of a second.”

Even with those hurdles in place, traders haven't backed off the reunion story.

Kalshi markets now predict

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