Odds of LeBron joining Golden State sit at 60% after LA exit confirmed

LeBron James is leaving Los Angeles, his agent confirmed Tuesday, and Kalshi traders now think the Bay Area, not Cleveland, will be his most likely destination.

On Kalshi's Next Team market, Golden State has cooled from a high near 76% to around 60%. Cleveland has climbed to roughly 23%, with Miami and San Antonio picking up the rest. The shift comes as trade chatter around a Golden State deal for Anthony Davis has gotten messier, even as the central question, whether LeBron stays in LA, has now been answered.

LeBron's agent, Rich Paul, told ESPN ahead of Tuesday's 6 p.m. ET free agency opening that the 41-year-old will play elsewhere next season, ending an eight-year run with the Lakers that included a 2020 championship. Paul also confirmed James plans to keep playing, extending his own NBA record into a 24th season.

The news caps days of mounting speculation, much of it pointing toward Golden State. ESPN's Shams Charania has reported that Golden State is preparing to pursue both James and a trade for Anthony Davis, aiming to reunite the two with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green.

Green opened the door financially by declining his $27.7 million player option on Monday, a move league sources expected, with Green instead set to negotiate a new deal. That decision frees up cap flexibility for Golden State to chase outside additions.

If Green ultimately re-signs for less than his option value, Golden State could preserve the full $15.1 million non-taxpayer midlevel exception, the most likely mechanism for signing James outright.

Golden State's pursuit of Davis is widely seen as tied to luring James. The two won a title together with the Lakers in 2020 and share an agent in Rich Paul. But the mechanics have gotten harder to pull off, which likely explains some of Golden State's pullback in the market.

Any Davis trade would need to include Jimmy Butler's expiring $56.8 million contract for salary-matching, but the Wizards have reportedly said they don't want Butler, who is also five months removed from ACL surgery. Butler's agent has pushed back publicly on trade speculation, saying the Warriors have told him they intend to keep him once he's healthy.

On top of that, Golden State and Kristaps Porziņģis have reportedly agreed to a two-year contract extension, an additional payroll commitment that further complicates fitting Davis and James onto the roster. Washington, for its part, has said it intends to keep Davis and discuss a long-term extension with him later this summer.

Golden State has spent its time in the offseason trying to revamp its roster ever since Green turned down his team’s offer. The San Francisco Chronicle’s Ron Kroichick reported that Green’s free agency “marks one of the first big steps in the Warrior’s crucial offseason.”

Golden State made some key deals in the pro-basketball draft last week. The team took Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg in the first round, and Florida State’s Lajae Lones in the second round. The team also “agreed to a two-year $14 million contract with center Al Horford.”

There were rumors circulating earlier in the offseason that James might rejoin Cleveland, fueled partly by owner Dan Gilbert hinting at the possibility, and the market has given that scenario a real, if secondary, share.

Sports Illustrated's Davion Moore reported that Gilbert raised James' name while discussing the team's pursuit of another championship.

Other reporters, including ESPN's Brian Windhorst, have been more skeptical of a Cleveland reunion. A homecoming would also be financially awkward: James Harden's contract and the team's proximity to the second tax apron make a sign-and-trade difficult to structure without Cleveland taking on significant complexity.

For now, the market still treats Golden State as the clear leader, with Cleveland as the main alternative if a Bay Area deal falls apart.

Kalshi markets currently predict (as of this writing — odds move quickly and traders should check the live market):

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