Maine's Senate race could play a pivotal role in determining control of the chamber, and Democrat Troy Jackson has extended his lead over Republican Sen. Susan Collins in the Kalshi market.
Jackson leads Collins 73% to 27% in Kalshi's Maine Senate winner market.
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What do the polls say?
Jackson has a noticeable lead over Collins in the latest poll.
A new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll shows Jackson leading Collins by nine percentage points.
The poll found that 54% of respondents had voted or planned to vote for Jackson, compared with 45% for Collins. Less than 1% said they would vote for another candidate, and another 1% said they were undecided.
Ranked-choice runoff
Maine's Senate race could require additional rounds of ranked-choice vote counting if no candidate receives a majority of first-choice votes.
ABC News reported that Maine and Alaska are using ranked-choice voting (RCV) in congressional and state races where voters “will have the opportunity to have their ballot count towards the person with the majority of votes, even if they strongly prefer a third-party candidate.”
Voters can rank candidates in order of preference on a single ballot.
“If no candidate gets a majority of No. 1 rankings, votes are transferred from the candidate with the least top rankings to the other candidates based on who was ranked second, third and so on,” ABC News reported.
The final push for votes
Jackson and Collins are making their final campaign appearances across Maine ahead of Tuesday's election.
WGME reported that Jackson “spent the week canvassing with voters from northern to southern Maine.”
Jackson also “hosted a fireside chat with Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey, where they discussed issues including rising costs of living, high heating oil prices, and the future of Maine’s health care industry.”
“I mean, $3 to $5 billion in the Big Beautiful Bill for health care,” Jackson said. “I mean, we have a $12 billion budget in Maine. I mean, we’re not going to make up $3 to $5 billion. I mean, people are going to go without, hospitals are going to be challenged, if not overrun.”
Collins has also been traversing the state to get the word out about her campaign, "meeting with families and voters from Old Town to Kittery. She emphasized her seniority, saying 'If the voters of Maine send me back to Washington, I will be filled in seniority in the United States Senate.'"
Collins also visited the Winthrop Police Department, where she emphasized her work securing federal funding for public safety projects. She said her position as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee has helped her direct funding toward projects in Maine.
The takeaway:
Kalshi markets now predict:
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